The US Is The Second-Biggest Underdog Still Alive At The World Cup
Part of that is due to scheduling as the U.S. will play in the final round of 16 match. Also, part of that is due to a lack of upsets so far in the knockout stage as group stage winners are now 6-0 in the round of 16.
As a result, most of the world's best soccer teams are still alive at the World Cup, including the top six teams and seven of the top nine teams according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index. The only teams among the top ten to be eliminated so far are Chile (no. 7), Spain (no. 8), and England (no. 10).
Here are the rankings for the remaining ten teams (SPI rating in parentheses):
- Brazil, 1 (90.6)
- Argentina, 2 (90.0)
- Colombia, 3 (89.4)
- Germany, 4 (88.7)
- Netherlands, 5 (87.8)
- France, 6 (87.6)
- Belgium, 9 (83.0)
- Switzerland, 16 (79.7)
- United States, 18 (78.6)
- Costa Rica, 22 (78.1)
Costa Rica is given a slightly better chance (1.0%) than the U.S. (0.6%) of winning the World Cup according to Nate Silver's model. However that's because Costa Rica already advanced to the quarterfinals.
The U.S. has a 41% chance of beating Belgium, but only a 11% chance of advancing to the semifinals and just a 3% chance to reach the final.