The US government is okay with India’s purchase of Russian weapons for now, but not for much longer

• In May 2018, the US government express concerns over India’s decision to buy the S-400 defense missile system from Russia.
  
• As a result of the $5.5 billion deal, India could have been the subject of sanctions under the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
  
• However, the US is set to exempt India from sanctions as it continues to reduce its military ties with Russia.

Following the recommendations of Jim Mattis, the US Defence Secretary, the US Congress has allowed the government to grant exemptions to certain Asian countries for their defence deals with Russia. Mattis’s reasoning was that countries need more time to “transition” out of their military dependence on Russia. Rather than full-fledged sanctions, the US should develop its relationship with these countries.

The Indian government will likely welcome the news of the waiver since its about to sign a large deal with Russia in a few months.

A violation of CAATSA?

In May 2018, Mac Thornberry, the head of a US congressional committee on armed services expressed his concerns over India’s military relationship with Russia. The Indian government had concluded a deal to buy the S-400 defense missile system from Russia.

The deal exceeded the minimum threshold prescribed under the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which meant that the US could have placed sanctions on India as a result for its purchase of Russian military equipment. It could also have endangered future military deals and technology sharing between the US and India. The CAATSA was passed in August 2017 to impose sanctions on Russia for its alleged manipulations of the US Presidential elections in 2016.

Despite the risk of raising the ire of its ally, in June, India’s defense minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said it was moving ahead with the $5.5 billion deal, which is scheduled to be finalised in October 2018. She explained that India and Russia had a long-standing military relationship. Additionally, the CAATSA, which is targeted at Russian entities, only came into effect in January 2018. The S-400 deal was agreed to, in principle, in 2016.

A conditional waiver

The waiver to India is conditional on India continuing to reduce its military cooperation with Russia. As per the recommendations of Secretary Mattis, the US will be happy to step in and fill the supply gap once India cuts ties with Russia but India needs to meet it halfway. In fact, the waiver is a recognition of India’s growing relationship with the US, especially for the purchase of military equipment.

The issue will likely come up in India’s 2+2 talks with the US in September 2018. India has a tough choice to make. While its military deal making with Russia stretches back to the mid-20th century, it will not want to defy the US. But ending military ties with Russia also doesn’t seem to be viable.

As the US’s relations with Russia ebb to their lowest point in decades, allies of both countries like India will continually find themselves stuck in the middle. As its global influence wanes, the US might have to dial back on the stricter provisions of CAATSA, lest it alienate some of its allies.