- New ICM poll taken after the EU referendum.
- Conservatives: 38%
- Labour: 30%
- History tells us Labour should be leading in the polls at this point.
The chart says it all - the Conservatives opened up a new 8-point lead over Labour after the Brexit referendum:
The online poll by ICM was taken on July 8-10, and it contains the preferences of 2,025 adults. It is worth noting that ICM online polls tend to have a 1-point bias in favour of the Tories, according to UK Polling Report.
The bad news for Labour is that the poll was taken after the Brexit vote (when the news media had focused on the negative economic impact of Brexit), after prime minister David Cameron's resignation plunged the Conservatives into a new leadership race, and after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had come under sustained criticism from his own MPs.
In other words, with a lot of bad news built into the numbers for the government, the poll still gave the Tories a larger percentage lead than they gained at the 2015 general election.
History tells us that Labour really should be doing much better in the polls at this point in the electoral cycle, too. At this stage during Ed Miliband's time as opposition leader polls were indicating leads of up to 6-points for Labour.
Still to come: Whether the ascension of Theresa May as the new Conservative Prime Minister will give the Tories even more of a boost, and whether Corbyn's contest against MP Angela Eagle for the Labour leadership will help or hurt the Opposition's ratings.