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The stock market is stuck in a traffic jam - so Goldman Sachs has picked 14 stocks set to break the gridlock by exploding higher

Apr 20, 2018, 15:43 IST

ChinaFotoPress/ Getty Images

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  • There's a gridlock situation in the US equity market, with intra-stock correlations sitting close to their highest level on record.
  • Goldman Sachs has identified 14 stocks that are operating with a mind of their own and also offering big upside to current trading levels.

Stocks in the US market are increasingly following the herd, and it's created a huge dilemma for investors who prove their bonafides picking single companies.

Goldman Sachs finds that stock correlations within the benchmark S&P 500 have surged into the 95th percentile since 1980. In addition, average three-month correlations have spiked by 43 percentage points since January, which is the fastest and biggest increase since the 1987 market crash.

To put it in the simplest terms, this indicates that the US equity market is currently mired in a traffic jam where almost everyone is stuck moving in the same direction. When a broad move transpires, this makes it exceedingly difficult to generate returns, simply because there are so few single outliers. Stock-pickers loathe this correlation for these reasons.

Goldman Sachs

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So how did we get here? For one, the rapid rise of exchange-traded funds and passive investing has resulted in traders buying and selling large swaths of the market at once, leaving little room for single-stock fluctuations. Goldman also notes that large pullbacks in stocks have been largely driven by valuation concerns, rather than individual company earnings.

The firm knows it's become a difficult environment, and it's here to help. Chief US equity strategist David Kostin has calculated a so-called "dispersion score" for each S&P 500 company, for which he factors in (1) the proportion of returns driven by company-specific factors and (2) Goldman's forecast of the volatility associated with the proportion of return attributable to those micro factors.

"Stocks with high dispersion scores are more likely to have heightened responses to idiosyncratic news and present the best alpha generation opportunities," Kostin wrote in a recent client note.

Goldman then takes its analysis a step further and identifies the companies within the high-dispersion universe that have the biggest upside to the firm's price target.

Without further ado, here are the 14 high-dispersion stocks, arranged in increasing order of which ones have the biggest upside to current trading levels:

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14. Take-Two Interactive

Ticker: TTWO

Industry: Information technology

Market cap: $11 billion

Dispersion score: 2.7

Upside to Goldman target: 37%

13. Tyson Foods

Ticker: TSN

Industry: Consumer staples

Market cap: $21 billion

Dispersion score: 1.8

Upside to Goldman target: 37%

12. Broadcom

Ticker: AVGO

Industry: Information technology

Market cap: $99 billion

Dispersion score: 2.5

Upside to Goldman target: 40%

11. Molson Coors Brewing

Ticker: TAP

Industry: Consumer staples

Market cap: $16 billion

Dispersion score: 1.6

Upside to Goldman target: 41%

10. Vulcan Materials

Ticker: VMC

Industry: Materials

Market cap: $15 billion

Dispersion score: 2.0

Upside to Goldman target: 43%

9. AbbVie

Ticker: ABBV

Industry: Healthcare

Market cap: $149 billion

Dispersion score: 2.7

Upside to Goldman target: 44%

8. Alexion Pharmaceuticals

Ticker: ALXN

Industry: Healthcare

Market cap: $25 billion

Dispersion score: 4.4

Upside to Goldman target: 44%

7. Noble Energy

Ticker: NBL

Industry: Energy

Market cap: $15 billion

Dispersion score: 1.6

Upside to Goldman target: 45%

6. Williams Companies

Ticker: WMB

Industry: Energy

Market cap: $21 billion

Dispersion score: 2.7

Upside to Goldman target: 46%

5. Incyte

Ticker: INCY

Industry: Healthcare

Market cap: $14 billion

Dispersion score: 8.9

Upside to Goldman target: 46%

4. Biogen

Ticker: BIIB

Industry: Healthcare

Market cap: $56 billion

Dispersion score: 2.1

Upside to Goldman target: 53%

3. Cabot Oil & Gas

Ticker: COG

Industry: Energy

Market cap: $11 billion

Dispersion score: 2.1

Upside to Goldman target: 60%

2. Newfield Exploration

Ticker: NFX

Industry: Energy

Market cap: $5 billion

Dispersion score: 2.6

Upside to Goldman target: 77%

1. DISH Network

Ticker: DISH

Industry: Consumer discretionary

Market cap: $9 billion

Dispersion score: 3.4

Upside to Goldman target: 80%

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