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The Squeeze On Oil Just Sent UK Inflation To A 12-Year Low

Dec 16, 2014, 15:04 IST

UK inflation is down to 1% for November, the lowest since 2002.

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That's down from 1.2% in October and well below the Bank of England's 2% target, as the plunging oil price starts to reach petrol pumps. If inflation falls below 1%, Bank governor Mark Carney has to write a letter to Chancellor George Osborne explaining why.

Here it is in context from the Office for National Statistics:

ONS

The collapse in oil prices is a big part of this: crude oil is now worth barely more than half of what it was during the summer, bringing inflation down everywhere. The UK is also getting the after-effects of the eurozone's incredibly low inflation imported over, since the bloc is the UK's biggest trading partner.

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Yields on the UK's 30-year bonds just dropped to 2.5%, the lowest ever recorded. Low inflation drives yields lower because investors are happy to take a lower return when prices aren't rising quickly.

Don't expect a change any time soon. Oxford Economics suggested that consumer price inflation (CPI) would be below 1% for most of 2015 even before today's figures, largely due to the collapse of oil:

Oxford Economics

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