Turns out the answer is "about nine months," as Marvel just confirmed a long-standing rumor - Spider-Man will be appearing in next year's "Captain America: Civil War."
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In the "Civil War" comic book, Spider-Man is essentially the moral center of the story, the character caught in the ideological tug-of-war between Captain America and Iron Man. The rift between the two emerges over the issue of superhero registration - Iron Man sides with the government and believes that superheroes declare their secret identities, undergo training and enlist in government service, while Captain America holds that registration is a violation of civil liberties and gives too much power to the government.
This is kind of hard to imagine working as well in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, where secret identities aren't really a thing and almost every hero has worked for a government organization in some capacity or another. What's more, Marvel movies have never been close adaptations of the comics, but remixes of their greatest hits - even when a movie is named after a particular story (like "Captain America: The Winter Soldier") it usually plays fast and loose with the source material.
Also, let's not forget that the "Civil War" movie is already absolutely stuffed with characters, with almost every Avenger except Hulk and Thor appearing. Logistically, it's hard to imagine anyone getting significant screen time.
Either way, it's great to know we're getting an MCU Spider-Man so soon - and, according to Kevin Feige, Marvel's deal with Sony works both ways - MCU characters can appear in Sony's new Holland-starring Spider-Man movie, currently scheduled for July 2017.
Be sure to check out the whole interview for more on Marvel's plans, and a surprisingly frank discussion about the studio's rocky "Ant-Man" development.