The Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every NFL Game - Here Are Its Picks For Week 13
It's now 116-60 (65.9%) on the season.
Cortana is a Windows phone virtual assistant that is using a Bing Predicts algorithm to predict every NFL game this season. It started at the World Cup, where it correctly predicted 15 of 16 knockout stage games, including Germany's surprising win over Brazil in the semifinal.
Week 12 was a nice bounceback week for the algorithm after it went 8-6 in Week 11.
There were a ton of big favorites (only two point spreads were within a field goal), and most of them won. Las Vegas betting favorites also went 11-4, and Nate Silver's ELO model went 12-3 - correctly predicting the Bengals over the Texans when both Cortana and Vegas had Houston as the favorite.
ELO has correctly predicted 69.8% of all NFL games this year, while Vegas favorites are right around Cortana at 115-58-3. The Bing Predicts algorithm makes picks straight up, not against the point spread.
Here are Cortana's picks for Week 13 as of Tuesday night. We'll update them throughout the week if they change (Vegas favorites in parentheses):
- Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions - Lions win, 62.9% chance (Lions -7)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys win, 58.2% chance (Cowboys -3)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers - 49ers win, 53.3% chance (49ers -1)
- Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts - Colts win, 83% chance (Colts -9.5)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans - Texans win, 67.4% chance (Texans -6.5)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills - Bills win, 56.6% chance (Bills -2.5)
- San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens - Ravens win, 61.4% chance (Ravens -5.5)
- New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Giants win, 55% chance (Giants -2.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bengals win, 71.6% chance (Bengals -4)
- Oakland Raiders vs. St. Louis Rams - Rams win, 65.9% chance (Rams -7)
- New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers win, 75.4% chance (Steelers -3.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings - Vikings win, 59.8% chance (Vikings -3)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons - Cardinals win, 59.8% chance (Cardinals -2.5)
- New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers - Packers win, 58.2% chance (Packers -3)
- Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Broncos win, 59.8% chance (Broncos -1.5)
- Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets - Dolphins win, 67.4% chance (Dolphins -5.5)
Cortana and Vegas agree on every game, but there is plenty of time for things to change.
Here are Cortana's results so far this year: