The key to an Anthony Davis trade may be a 20-year-old Celtics player who has the entire saga in limbo
- The New Orleans Pelicans are incentivized to hold onto Anthony Davis past Thursday's trade deadline so they can hear offers from the Boston Celtics in the summer.
- The Celtics are regarded as the team that can offer the best trade package for Davis, in part because they could include 20-year-old star forward Jayson Tatum in an offer.
- According to reports, the Celtics and Pelicans have had preliminary talks, with the Celtics telling the Pelicans to wait until the offseason so they can get into the bidding for Davis. They reportedly have not guaranteed that Tatum will be involved.
- If the Pelicans wait until the summer and turn down a big offer from the Lakers, it may be contingent on getting Tatum, though the Celtics may still try to avoid including Tatum in any packages.
One reason for the holdup in the Anthony Davis trade sweepstakes is that the New Orleans Pelicans are inclined to wait until the offseason to move the 25-year-old star big man.
That's when the Boston Celtics, the team widely regarded as being able to make the Pelicans the best offer, will be able to get involved. They're currently prohibited from trading for Davis due to an obscure CBA rule that prohibits teams from trading for two players on "designated" contracts. Irving and Davis are both "designated" players.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been pushing to trade for Davis ahead of Thursday's trade deadline to prevent the Celtics from getting involved. If Davis remains on the Pelicans past the deadline, it would open up bidding to the Celtics, as well as teams with high draft picks, once the order is decided in May.
But what, specifically, makes the Celtics' offer so great? It mainly hinges on second-year forward Jayson Tatum.
The 20-year-old Tatum has been a revelation since the Celtics took him with the third overall pick in last year's draft. He's shown a smooth shooting stroke, the ability to get himself a basket, and is willing passer and capable defender. Tatum is already a plus player on the floor, and given his age, has the potential to become a future star.
The Pelicans reportedly want several future draft picks, young players, and one player with future All-NBA potential in return for Davis.
The Celtics an offer all of those things, but the value of their other assets may be declining, making Tatum all the more important.
The Celtics' treasure trove of picks has lost some shine
The Celtics could have multiple first-round draft picks in this year's draft, but it's not guaranteed.
The Celtics own the Memphis Grizzlies' 2019 pick, but it is top-8 protected. The Grizzlies are attempting to sell off veteran stars in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to bottom-out and keep their pick. The pick is top-6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. There is good value there, but the pick may not transfer until 2021.
The Celtics own the Sacramento Kings 2019 first-round pick (or the 76ers' if it is more valuable, but that looks unlikely to happen, as the 76ers are near the top of the Eastern Conference). That pick will likely convey this season, but the Kings are fighting for a playoff spot. It is likely to fall in the mid-teens this year.
The Pelicans won't turn up their noses at those picks, but those picks lose a little luster when diving deeper into what they are likely to become.
How much better are the Celtics' young players than the Lakers'?
Like the Lakers, the Celtics can also offer several young, intriguing players. But, again, when diving a little deeper, the package may not be as appealing as it seems.
Jaylen Brown is the Celtics' second-best young prospect. After making a surprising leap in his second season and showing some borderline All-Star potential, Brown has regressed a little in 2018-19. He's still averaging nearly 13 points per game on 45% shooting, mostly off the bench, and he possesses the tools to be a great defender.
But Brown's three-point shooting has fallen from 39.5% last season to 32% this season. His 50.5% effective field goal percentage (eFG) ranks 150th of players to attempt at least 250 field goals this season.
The Celtics could offer Marcus Smart, a stout defender, positive locker room presence, and a player whose hustle and energy have made him a fan favorite. He's valuable on contending teams, but it's unclear if he's a difference-maker for a potentially rebuilding team like the Pelicans.
Terry Rozier is a promising young point guard, but he, too, has struggled this season and will be a restricted free agent this summer. He would have to agree to a sign-and-trade to the Pelicans, making a deal more complicated.
Who else can the Celtics offer? Semi Ojeleye has potential as a wing defender and finisher around the basket, but he's shooting just 29% from three and isn't a key member of the Celtics' rotation. Daniel Theis is a sweet-shooting big man, but he plays limited minutes and doesn't appear to be a blue-chip prospect.
Perhaps the Pelicans could be wooed by the star power of Gordon Hayward and Al Horford. Hayward will be 29 next season, owed $66 million over the next two seasons, and has not looked the same in returning from a severe ankle injury. He may yet find his stride, but he's a risky trade piece.
Horford has a player option this summer, but if he picks it up, he'll be a free agent in 2020 and will be turning 34.
Tatum is the difference-maker
It's becoming clear that Tatum is the piece that would make waiting worth it for the Pelicans.
According to Sam Amick of The Athletic, Tatum has been discussed "extensively" by the Pelicans and Celtics.
The Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach reported that the Celtics have urged the Pelicans to hold onto Davis until the offseason, reassuring the Pelicans that they will be "willing to offer an explosive package when the time arrives, and that no specific player will be off limits in negotiations."
The Celtics also have to be cautious about misleading the Pelicans. The Celtics, in an ideal world, would not give up Tatum, their best young player, for Davis. But if they tell the Pelicans to wait, they must be careful about not making it seem like Tatum will definitively be part of the deal, then backtracking on their word in the summer.
It could be argued that Kyrie Irving is of equal importance to this whole dance. Irving will be a free agent at the end of the season, and he recently publicly opted not to double-down on his commitment to re-sign with Boston, as he told fans in the fall.
The Celtics' dream is to trade for Davis, hold onto Tatum, and re-sign Irving. That trio would have the Celtics in business for years to come.
But to keep Irving, the Celtics may need assurances that they can land Davis. Attracting a second star to Boston might be enough to keep Irving.
On the other hand, holding onto Irving may be necessary to keep Davis in Boston beyond 2020. Davis has not listed the Celtics as a team he'd re-sign with, but according to ESPN's Zach Lowe, the Celtics feel confidently that if they can pair Davis and Irving, they could keep both long-term.
Tatum again may be key there. According to reports, the Celtics would still attempt to trade for Davis, even if Irving decides to leave in free agency. Tatum would become doubly important in that scenario, as he could be the other star to pair with Davis. Trading for Davis, without Irving or Tatum, might make the Celtics the "Pelicans East" - good but not good enough. It would likely mean they lose Davis in 2020.
If Tatum is off the board, the Celtics could still put together a package involving Brown, Smart, and three or four future first-round picks. Is that better than the Lakers' reported offer of Ingram, Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Ivica Zubac, and two first-round picks? It may be, but as Lowe argued, it's at least debatable.
Tatum is the player that tips the scales in favor of Boston. If New Orleans is keen on getting back a player with All-NBA potential, then holding onto Davis past the deadline could mean they are set on getting Tatum back in a trade.
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