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- The Tax Policy Center released an analysis Wednesday of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
- The report found that the bulk of the benefits from the tax reform bill would go toward wealthier Americans.
- The report also found that by 2027, 28% of Americans would actually see a tax increase relative to current law.
A report published Wednesday found that the Republican tax bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), would lead to higher taxes for many Americans over the next 10 years if enacted into law.
The new analysis from the Urban Institute's and Brookings Institution's Tax Policy Center found that by 2027, 28% of Americans would see an increase in their tax burden due to the tax code overhaul proposed in the TCJA.
According to the TPC, the expiration of a number of provisions designed to ease the burden on individuals over the first 10 years of the House bill would lead to an eventual increase for many taxpayers.
"Overall, the tax cut would be smaller in 2027, because of the expiration of certain provisions in 2023 (including the new $300 family credit and 100 percent bonus depreciation), the effect of indexing tax parameters to a slower-growing measure of inflation, and the substitution of a child credit that is not indexed for inflation for personal exemptions that are indexed," the report said.
Over the shorter-term, all income groups would pay less on average than under current law - but proposed changes for certain individuals would lead to an increase in the tax burden for 12% of population.
Here's a rundown of some of the other key findings from TPC:
- By 2018:
- The average American's tax bill would decline $1,100, increasing the average after-tax incomes by 1.5%.
- Taxes for people in the lower two quintiles would decrease 0.3% and 0.5%. For the middle quintile, from $48,000 to $86,000, would get an average tax cut of $700, or 1.2%, of after-tax income.
- Taxpayers with incomes in the top 1% would receive 22% of the benefit of the tax cuts in 2018 - with an average cut of $37,000.
- "70% of taxpayers would experience a tax cut from the included provisions averaging $2,000, and 12 percent would face an average tax increase of nearly $1,600," the report said.
- By 2027:
- The average American's tax bill would decline by $700, increasing after-tax incomes by 0.7%.
- Taxes for people in the lower two quintiles would increase slightly, with an average increase of $10 to $20.
- Taxpayers with incomes in the top 1% would receive "nearly 50%" of the overall benefit by 2027, with an average cut of $52,780.
- "In 2027, 57% of taxpayers would see an average tax cut of $2,400, while nearly 28% of taxpayers would face an average tax increase of nearly $2,000," the report said.
- Some high-income earners would see a tax increase due tot he loss of itemized deductions.
The TPC has come under attack from the Trump administration and congressional Republicans for a previous analysis of the Big Six unified framework released in September.
Republicans argue that the TPC analysis does not factor in the potential economic growth from the plan. A separate analysis from the Tax Foundation found that the legislation would favor wealthier Americans in a static scenario but distribute similar benefits when adjusting for economic growth.
The Tax Policy Center told Business Insider that an analysis that factors in dynamic growth effects is forthcoming.