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Progressive challenger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with New York gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon.ewq
- A stunning upset win against a longtime Democratic incumbent in the New York primaries has many talking about a 'Democratic Spring.'
- Democratic strategists say that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - the 28-year-old who beat longtime incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley - is a case study in the kind of insurgent Democrats that will lead a 2018 blue wave.
On Tuesday night, the impossible happened in New York City.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old self-described socialist, unseated Rep. Joe Crowley, one of the most powerful and entrenched Democrats in Congress.
A few neighborhoods away in Brooklyn, Adem Bunkeddeko, a young community activist, came just 1,000 votes away from beating veteran incumbent Rep. Yvette Clarke. And Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who represents a swath of affluent communities, was challenged by another young candidate of color, Suraj Patel.
Democratic strategists say Ocasio-Cortez's stunning primary victory reflects a new energy among the party's base. And that if a "blue wave" comes in November, she and the other insurgent progressive candidates across the country will be the reason.
Women of color are leading the wave
Democratic women and women of color are running for office in historic numbers this year. And of the 293 women who have run or are running as challengers for House and Senate, 34 of them are taking on Democratic incumbents, according to the Center for American Women and
"The way you take over the Democratic Party is you support progressive women of color who know how to f---ing organize. Everything else comes second," Sean McElwee, a progressive activist and pollster, tweeted on Tuesday.
Amanda Litman, a former Clinton campaign staffer and the co-founder of Run For Something, an organization that helps young Democrats run for local office, says Ocasio-Cortez's win illustrates that the party is taking women of color seriously - both as voters and candidates.
"Women of color are the backbone of the Democratic party and our leaders should be representative of the voters we're trying to reach," Litman said.
Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and former spokesman for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, said candidates like Ocasio-Cortez draw a helpful contrast with President Donald Trump and his administration.
"What are the American people seeing in the last two weeks? Donald Trump saying that young women of color should be in cages on the border and Democrats saying young women of color should be in Congress," Ferguson said.
Demographic shifts
Some say the changing demographics of New York voters - and Democratic voters across the country - will be key in the 2018 midterms. And new voters, many of whom may also be new Americans, aren't loyal to incumbent Democrats.
"It's more important than ever before to know who the new voters are," said Stu Loeser, a veteran New York Democratic strategist. "Personally, in the last year I've twice been in rooms where I knew everyone was a citizen - a passport office in Lower Manhattan and at jury duty in the Bronx - and most people appeared to be new Americans."
Loeser added that the makeup of New York's 14th district - and large swaths of the city - has changed dramatically since Crowley took office in 1999. Queens has gone from "a predominantly white, largely Jewish and Catholic borough, to the most diverse county in the world." The district Ocasio-Cortez was raised in and will soon represent is now about 50% Latinx and over 80% non-white.
Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, said the New York upset sends a message to all establishment Democrats to stay in touch with their constituents.
"If you want to continue to win, you better look really, really hard at your district - and never, ever lose touch of where the energy is," Reinish said. "You can't rely on where the energy has been for years."
'The Democratic Spring'
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Stacey Abrams won Georgia's Democratic gubernatorial primary in May.
Many Democrats and left-wing activists say that a November "blue wave" won't happen without strong campaigns on the far left.
Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor of the progressive magazine The Nation, called recent left-wing electoral successes part of a "Democratic spring" in a Washington Post op-ed column last month.
"Instead of bemoaning the moribund Democratic Party, progressives are increasingly moving to take it over," vanden Heuvel wrote. "If there is to be a blue wave, it will build from the enthusiasm of the Democratic base demanding change."
But others continue to advocate for a Clinton-esque, centrist approach. Ferguson said the Democratic party won the majority of American votes in 2016 for a reason, and it shouldn't stray too far from the mainstream if it wants to maintain that majority.
But he's not surprised a socialist platform appeals to voters in New York's 14th district.
"If a Democrat in this district can't champion those policies, where can they?" he said.