The computer model that nailed the NFL's 2017 season has made its picks for Week 5

Cork GainesOct 4, 2018, 22:50 IST

Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP

Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and Microsoft's Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last year, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 30-16-1 the last three weeks. Elo is not far behind at 26-20-1. Both models went 11-4 in Week 4.

Here are the picks for Week 5, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

See The computer model that nailed the NFL's 2017 season has made its picks for Week 5 >>

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis at New England (-10) — PATRIOTS (Elo 83%; Cortana 80%)

Sunday afternoon games — early window

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland — RAVENS (Elo 76%; Cortana 60%)
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3) — CHIEFS (Elo 68%; Cortana 67%)
Tennessee (-3.5) at Buffalo — BILLS (Elo 52%); TITANS (Cortana 66%)
New York Giants at Carolina (-7) — PANTHERS (Elo 80%; Cortana 70%)
Denver at New York Jets (-1) — JETS (Elo 56%; Cortana 63%)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3) — STEELERS (Elo 57%; Cortana 58%)
Green Bay (-1.5) at Detroit — LIONS (Elo 60%); PACKERS (Cortana 60%)
Miami at Cincinnati (-6) — BENGALS (Elo 63%; Cortana 63%)

Sunday afternoon games — late window

Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-5) — CHARGERS (Elo 73%; Cortana 61%)
Arizona at San Francisco (-4) — 49ERS (Elo 66%; Cortana 55%)
Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3) — EAGLES (Elo 70%; Cortana 64%)
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle — PICK'EM (Elo 50%); RAMS (Cortana 74%)

Sunday Night Football

Dallas at Houston (-3) — COWBOYS (Elo 60%); TEXANS (Cortana 51%)

Monday Night Football

Washington at New Orleans (-6.5) — SAINTS (Elo 73%; Cortana 66%)

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