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Tampa Bay Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- The computer models are back making their picks for the 2018 NFL season.
- In 2017, Microsoft's Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.
- FiveThirtyEight's Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.
Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and Microsoft's Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Cortana won the regular season matchup last season, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.
Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 10-5-1 in Week 2. Elo struggled, going 7-8-1.
Here are the picks for Week 3, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
Thursday
- New York Jets at Cleveland (-3) - JETS (Elo 62%), BROWNS (Cortana 51%)
Sunday
- New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) - FALCONS (Elo 66%, Cortana 63%)
- San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) - CHIEFS (Elo 77%, Cortana 60%)
- Oakland at Miami (-3) - DOLPHINS (Elo 68%, Cortana 63%)
- Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5) - VIKINGS (Elo 78%, Cortana 79%)
- Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6.5) - EAGLES (Elo 83%, Cortana 66%)
- Green Bay (-3) at Washington - REDSKINS (Elo 57%), PACKERS (Cortana 53%)
- Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) - PANTHERS (Elo 63%), BENGALS (Cortana 51%)
- Tennessee at Jacksonville (no line) - JAGUARS (Elo 71%, Cortana 67%)
- Denver at Baltimore (-5.5) - RAVENS (Elo 68%, Cortana 63%)
- New York Giants at Houston (-6) - TEXANS (Elo 59%, Cortana 61%)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7) - RAMS (Elo 64%, Cortana 72%)
- Chicago (-5.5) at Arizona - CARDINALS (Elo 55%), BEARS (Cortana 66%)
- Dallas at Seattle (-1.5) - SEAHAWKS (Elo 55%, Cortana 53%)
- New England (-6.5) at Detroit - PATRIOTS (Elo 64%, Cortana 75%)
Monday
- Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tampa Bay - BUCS (Elo 54%), STEELERS (Cortana 57%)