The Chicago Bulls are keeping their team exactly the same and betting on their rookie coach
After a season in which they struggled with injuries and in-house fighting with head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls only made one key change this offseason - they fired Thibodeau and hired Iowa State head coach Fred Hoiberg.
Otherwise, the Bulls handled their biggest priority, re-signing Jimmy Butler to a five-year, $90 million deal and bringing back their other free agents like Mike Dunleavy and Aaron Brooks.
In doing so, the Bulls are making a simple bet - they have a championship team that was set back by injuries and a coach, Thibodeau, who had a bumpy relationship with some players.
Thibodeau's grinding, intense style reportedly wore on players to the point that they worked out at other gyms during the off-season, and the front office reportedly had a major dispute with the high minutes Thibodeau played starters. The Bulls under Thibodeau were always an elite defensive team, and when healthy, a decent offensive one. Under Hoiberg, the Bulls believe they can retain their defensive nature while making strides on offense.
However, there's also reason to believe this is an overly confident approach by the Bulls front office.
First, Hoiberg is inheriting a team that is both naturally and unfortunately injury-prone.
- Derrick Rose played 51 games in 2014-15, his most games in four years, yet he still had to undergo knee surgery in the middle of the season.
- Joakim Noah's play suffered after having knee surgery last summer. He played 67 games, but at 30 years old, has only played more than 70 games once in the last six years.
- Pau Gasol, at 35 years old, just had a wonderful season, but averaged over 34 minutes per game, his most in three seasons. It's questionable whether he can replicate his All-Star year after logging so many minutes at his age.
- Jimmy Butler, for as good of a season as he just had, also missed 15 games for the second year in a row and has averaged nearly 39 minutes per game the last two seasons. It's fair to wonder if he, too, can replicate an All-Star year, which was the standout of his career.
Thibodeau, though he had his faults, also continually got the most out of an oft-injured team. Though their playoff record doesn't back their regular season success, they've rarely, if ever, had a fully healthy team going into the playoffs. Regardless, they've consistently been one of the top teams in the East.
Players and the front office may have a better relationship with Hoiberg, but it's fair to wonder if any coach could squeeze that much more out of the Bulls unless they're fully healthy. Hoiberg can manage the minutes better than Thibodeau, but even with the constant injuries, the Bulls were still 10th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating last season. Unless the Bulls top players repeat their All-Star seasons and suddenly can stay healthy, is there that much room for improvement?
Working in the Bulls' favor is a weak Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers once again look like the best team, but the Atlanta Hawks may have taken a step backward, and nobody else quite seems ready to enter the contender conversation.
There's room for the Bulls to improve, but they've kept together a team that lost fairly convincingly to the Cavaliers in six games last season. In a weak East, a coaching change may be all the Bulls need to get to the Conference Finals, but it nonetheless seems like a bold bet.