THE BUSINESS INSIDER ELECTORAL PROJECTION: Clinton makes huge gains
In just one week, the electoral map has swung dramatically in favor of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, amid a tumultuous week for Republican nominee Donald Trump.
A total of eight swing states and one congressional district shifted in some way to be more favorable to the former secretary of state. Not one swing state or congressional district with its own Electoral College vote moved more in favor of Trump.
Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, led Trump by 272 to 181 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of each party's nominee. That's already enough to secure Clinton the nomination. It's a vast difference from last week's projection that showed Clinton with a 237-to-187 edge among the same categories.
Business Insider judged that a safe state was anywhere in which a candidate led by at least 8 points, while a likely state was anywhere in which the nominee held a 4- to 8-point lead.
When states that leaned toward a candidate were factored in, Clinton held a 316-to-187 advantage over Trump. Last week, Clinton was up 301-to-216 in this category. States that were considered to lean in favor of Clinton or Trump were those in which either candidate held a 2- to 4-point lead.
The tossups, any state in which the major-party nominees held a lead of less than 2 points, consisted of 35 electoral votes. Last week, the two states that were too close to call were Nevada and North Carolina. This week, North Carolina moved to be leaning Clinton, while Arizona and Ohio were downgraded from leaning Trump to being a tossup.
In addition, the two critical battleground states of Pennsylvania and Colorado moved much more in favor of Clinton. Both were only leaning in her favor as of last week. Now, the former is considered a "safe" state while the later is considered "likely" based on the latest polls.
That polling is a reflection on the brutal week for Trump's candidacy. On Friday, a leaked tape of Trump from 2005 showed him making crude sexual remarks about women, including that he could "grab" women "by the p---y" because "when you're a star they let you do it."
Sunday, Trump was viewed by many to have lost the second presidential debate to Clinton, during which he threatened to jail her should he win in November.
And on Wednesday, too recent to be reflected in the latest polling, several women came forward to discuss Trump making unwanted sexual advances on them. Trump denied their claims, calling one instance "phony."