The Atlanta Fed nailed it
First quarter GDP was a big disappointment.
The economy grew just 0.2% to start 2015, well below the 1% growth that Wall Street economists were expecting.
But the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was giving you the number you needed all along.
The Atlanta Fed saw first quarter GDP rising just 0.1% - right at what the BEA's official number was. (On April 22, the Atlanta Fed saw GDP growth at 0.2%, but this number was revised slightly lower after last Friday's durable goods report.)
This GDPNow figure takes in real-time readings on the 13 components that the BEA analyzes when forming its official GDP figures, and the Atlanta Fed says that, "As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate."
At one point, the Atlanta Fed was forecasting no growth for the first quarter, and while this number moved a bit higher leading up to Wednesday's report, it was consistently more downbeat that Wall Street estimates.
It was also right.
