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The art economy is in freefall - and it's mostly China's fault

Matthew Nitch Smith   

The art economy is in freefall - and it's mostly China's fault
Finance2 min read

Picasso

Getty Images

Picasso bucked the downward trend last year.

It's not just oil and commodities that crashed in 2015.

The global art market has fallen 7% compared to last year. And like everything else to do with the worldwide economic slowdown, most people are blaming it on China.

A report by the European Fine Art Fair (TEFAF) shows that global art sales fell from "$68.2 billion (£47.7 billion) to $63.8 billion (£44.6 billion) and the volume of sales declined by 2% to 38.1 million."

While sales actually increased 4% in the US, Chinese demand tumbled, with total sales dropping 23% to $11.8 billion (£8.2 billion). The UK also saw a 9% drop in sales, but it still jumped ahead of China to become the world's second biggest art market after the US.

Though an overall 7% year on year drop would be bad news for any global market, some see the Chinese drop in demand as a momentary blip. Edward Wilkinson, executive director of Bonhams' Asia, told the Guardian that the Eastern markets would always pick up as its collectors still appreciated new works:

"The market in Asia has experienced tremendous growth over the past couple of years and some sectors may experience a temporary slowdown. However, collectors from the Asian region have shown their capacity to appreciate a broad cross-section of the arts and I believe the market has the capacity to adapt very quickly."

Nevertheless, the TEFAF report notes a striking divergence in the effect price has on an artwork's fortunes: the market for art valued at over $1 million (£700,000) has grown four times faster than the general market, while the $10 million (£7 million) plus art market has grown 10 times faster.

Modern art also did slightly better than classical art, with Picasso and Modigliani pieces selling for $170 million (£119 million) last year.

So if you want invest in art, there's one easy rule to follow: buy modern works that cost over $10 million (£7 million).

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