The 33 Biggest Geopolitical Risks For America In 2014

Amanda MaciasFeb 26, 2014, 00:17 IST

Council on Foreign RelationsClick map to see interactive version.

Several of the 2014 geopolitical risks that could affect the U.S. that the Council on Foreign Relations warned about in December are already happening.

Political unrest in Ukraine, rated moderate likelihood, moderate impact, has erupted into "civil violence and protracted political instability." A political crisis in Venezuela, rated low likelihood, low impact, is starting to look a lot more likely, with protesters warning they have reached the point of no return.

The CFR report and accompanying map (click for interactive version) is based on the assessment of approximately 1,200 government officials, foreign policy experts, and academics. Risk events are rated for likelihood and impact, with high impact events directly threatening the U.S. homeland, likely to trigger U.S. military involvement, or threatening the supply of critical U.S. strategic resources.

Below are the top ten threats threats, starting with the worst, with links to CFR's analysis for more information:

Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
High likelihood; moderate impact.
The Arabian Peninsula is considered the "most dangerous al-Qaeda affiliate" to U.S. national security with more than two dozen U.S. diplomatic facilities in the area have shut down because of terrorist threats. In response, the United States will continue to escalate its drone counterterrorism campaign.

Political Instability in Jordan
High likelihood; moderate impact.
Jordan's political stability and economy is severely threatened by the influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. The United Nations has estimated that Jordan will need $5.3 billion by the end of 2014 for its refugee crisis.

Sectarian Violence in Iraq
High likelihood; moderate impact.
According to the CFR, if sectarian violence continues, Iraq may plunge into a "deeper state of chaos" and potentially into civil war.

Rising Security Threats in Pakistan
High likelihood; moderate impact.
The withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Afghanistan after 2014 could increase instability by allowing anti-state militants from Pakistan to establish a terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan.

Increased Violence and Instability in Afghanistan
High likelihood; moderate impact.
Failure to sign a security pact could undermine U.S. and allied forces efforts to improve the security environment of Afghanistan. The reestablishment of al-Qaeda groups throughout Afghanistan is one possibility if agreements are not met.

Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Homeland
Moderate likelihood; high impact.
Another attack on the scale of 9/11 is "plausible," according to CFR, with the White House warning that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula "poses the greatest potential threat."

Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Moderate likelihood; high impact.
The prospects for a breakthrough in the nuclear standoff with Iran have recently improved. A lasting settlement of the dispute is still uncertain and even "the possibility of military strikes cannot be discounted," according to the CFR.

North Korean Crisis
Moderate likelihood; high impact.
The risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula remains high since there are continuous efforts by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons and long range missiles against UN Security Council resolutions. The execution of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's uncle following charges of treason has increased the potential for political instability and unrest in the country.

Civil War in Syria
Moderate likelihood; high impact.
According to the CFR, ongoing civil strife threatens the stability of U.S. allies, particularly Turkey and Jordan. Increased regional instability could create another safe haven for extremist groups active in Syria, like al-Qaeda affiliates, Islamic State of Iraq, and Hezbollah.

Cyberattack on U.S. Infrastructure
Moderate likelihood; high impact.
Due to the increasingly sophisticated nature of cyberattacks, such an attack on critical infrastructure could be significantly disruptive or potentially devastating. Energy is the most vulnerable industry, and therefore a large-scale attack could temporarily halt the supply of water, electricity, gas, transportation, communication, and financial institutions.

And 23 more threats:

Violence in the Central African Republic
High likelihood; low impact.

Internal Violence in South Sudan
High likelihood; low impact.

Escalation of Drug-Related Violence in Mexico
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Political Instability in Libya
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Increased Violence in Egypt
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Indo-Pakistani Military Confrontation
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Continuing Conflict in Somalia with Al-Shabab
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Sectarian Violence in Lebanon
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

Political Unrest in Ukraine
Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.

South China Sea Armed Confrontation
Low likelihood; high impact.

Increasing Sectarian Violence in Nigeria
Low likelihood; high impact.