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The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates who would benefit most if these 15 back-bench contenders dropped out of the race
The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates who would benefit most if these 15 back-bench contenders dropped out of the race
Grace Panetta,Walt HickeyAug 28, 2019, 21:32 IST
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Seth Moulton poses for a photo in BurbankReuters
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The bloated Democratic primary field is quickly narrowing down, and the inevitable spate of dropouts will likely benefit the top-tier of the field and enable them to consolidate more support.
In the past two weeks alone, three candidates called it quits after failing to meet the stricter requirements to qualify for the September and October DNC debates.
To help make sense of where all these candidates stand relative to eachother, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll.
Here's a look at which top-tier Democratic candidates will benefit the most from 15 lower and mid-tier contenders dropping out, according to Insider polling.
The bloated Democratic primary field is quickly narrowing down, and the inevitable spate of dropouts will likely benefit the top-tier of the field and enable them to consolidate more support.
In the past two weeks alone, three candidates called it quits after failing to meet the stricter requirements to qualify for the September and October DNC debates, which necessitated candidates to earn 130,000 individual donors and reach 2% in four DNC-approved polls.
Former Gov. John Hickenlooper dropped out to run for US Senate in Colorado, Gov. Jay Inslee quit the race to run for a third term as governor of Washington, and Rep. Seth Moulton, who also left the race to run for re-election in Massachusetts.
At this point in the race, we're mainly interested in using our polling to figure out:
What percentage of Democratic voters are familiar with each candidate in the first place.
How Democrats rate each candidate's chances of beating President Donald Trump in the general election.
If a given candidate were to drop out of the race, who that candidate's supporters would flock to next.
Here's a look at which top-tier Democratic candidates will benefit the most from 15 lower and mid-tier contenders dropping out, according to Insider polling.
Former Vice President Joe Biden would gain from de Blasio dropping out since about three-quarters of de Blasio supporters like Biden, which is considerably higher than Biden's performance among the entire Democratic primary electorate.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker are also poised to gain from a de Blasio exit, but New York colleague Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand would benefit the most, since about half of de Blasio supporters like Gillibrand.
Steyer, a billionaire financier and liberal activist, launched his campaign in July and pledged to spend $100 million on his own campaign.
Steyer hasn't been in the race very long and is likely to stay in it for a while since he's self-funding his campaign. But our polling indicates that fairly mainstream, popular Democrats would benefit the most from dropping out.
Biden, Warren, Booker, and Sen. Kamala Harris are more well-liked among Steyer supporters than less establishment-associated candidates like Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Williamson, an author and spiritual guru, gained attention and became an Internet meme for her performance at the first two Democratic debates, but has failed to gain much traction in the polls.
Sanders and Warren are far popular among Williamson supporters than more establishment-aligned candidates like Biden and Harris, and would stand the best chance of winning over the 1% of the electorate that supports Williamson.
Ryan is running as a champion of the Rust Belt and the working class, but has considerably struggled in the shadow of Biden. About three-quarters of Ryan supporters like Biden, and around two-thirds also like Harris and Warren.
But Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Ryan's fellow Midwesterner in the race, would benefit the most. She performs about 25 percentage points better among Ryan supporters than the Democratic primary electorate as a whole.
About three-quarters of Delaney's supporters also like Biden, another business-friendly political centrist from the mid-Atlantic region.
Klobuchar and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, however, also have disproportionate support among Delaney supporters, meaning they will benefit when Delaney — who is self-funding his campaign —eventually drops out.
However, just over 1% of respondents in Insider polling and other national polls support Delaney in the first place.
Around 80% of Bullock supporters also like Biden and about three-quarters support Warren, too.
Klobuchar, Castro, and Sen. Michael Bennet — the other 2020 candidate from the Rocky Mountain region — also enjoy disproportionate support among Bullock's backers.
Predictably, 80% of Bennet supporters like Biden, one of the most ideologically similar candidates to Bennet in the race. Another 75% like Warren, and around 70% also like Buttigieg and Harris.
Klobuchar also does particularly well among Bennet supporters.
Gillibrand is running a campaign centered around women's empowerment but has failed to break out in the field or crack more than 1% to 2% in the polls.
About 80% of Gillibrand supporters like Warren and Harris, the two current female frontrunners who, like Gillibrand, also serve in the US Senate.
Booker, Gillibrand's neighboring senator from New Jersey, also does well among her supporters and is liked by about two-thirds of those who back Gillibrand.
Fellow progressive candidates Warren and Harris each enjoy around 80% support among Castro supporters, setting them up to benefit when Castro leaves the race.
Booker too is liked by 70% of Castro supporters, about 30% higher than his performance among the entire electorate.
Harris and Warren, two of the other female senators in the race, would be the biggest beneficiaries of Klobuchar dropping out, with both enjoying around 75% among Klobuchar's supporters.
Yang is running his presidential campaign around a unique platform of giving every American a universal basic income of $1,000 a month and transforming the American economy to adapt to increasing automation and digitization of industries like manufacturing and retail.
Unsurprisingly, around two-thirds of Yang supporters also like both Sanders and Warren — the other two main candidates in the 2020 field race arguing for big, structural economic changes.
O'Rourke become a national Democratic superstar for coming within three percentage points of Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas' 2018 Senate race, shattering fundraising records along the way.
While O'Rourke has qualified for the fall debates, he's struggled throughout his entire campaign to maintain traction and get his message across in the shadow of other candidates.
Biden and Warren would be the main beneficiaries of O'Rourke dropping out, with about two-thirds of O'Rourke's supporters also liking those two candidates.
Booker, who is running his campaign on a message of unity and love, has qualified for the fall debates and is looking to consolidate his support in key primary states — and chip away at Biden's lead among African-American voters.
About three-quarters of Booker supporters also like his Senate colleagues Harris and Warren, putting them in a good position to consolidate his support when he eventually drops out.
Buttigieg went from being a little-known Midwestern mayor to experiencing a meteoric rise in the Democratic primary field, out-raising every other candidate last quarter, and qualifying for the fall debates, meaning he's likely to stick around for a while.
About 70% of Buttigieg supporters also like Warren and Harris, and about half of Buttigieg's current backers also like Booker, who over-performs among that group relative to the Democratic primary electorate as a whole.
