The 13 schools that still have a legit shot to make the College Football Playoff
We are now seven weeks into the college football season, and we finally had our first weekend of chaos.
Seven playoff contenders lost on Saturday and five of those teams were effectively eliminated from playoff contention, with Penn State, Wisconsin, Miami, Colorado, and Washington all suffering losses that eliminated any realistic shots at the playoff. Meanwhile, Notre Dame and Michigan were the big winners when the music stopped.
We have learned a few things over the years about how the committee picks the final four, and we have some idea of what teams need to do to make the playoff. Below, we ranked the 13 teams that still have a legit shot to make the playoff.
On the outside, looking in, for now: Iowa, Oregon, and Kentucky
These three teams all have one loss to good teams and are still alive to win their respective conferences. Kentucky and Oregon even have some decent wins on their resumes, but all three are lacking in enough buzz or consistently impressive play to have a legit shot at the playoff. That could change, but for now, these teams do not have a legit shot at the playoff.
13. West Virginia
Record (AP Rank): 5-1 (13)
Last week's result: Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
Last week's playoff rank: 9
Key games remaining: After a game against Baylor, the Mountaineers' final four games are TCU and Oklahoma at home and Oklahoma State and Texas on the road.
One thing to know: It was tempting to take WVU off the list after their loss to Iowa State, but if they can somehow run the table, including the Big 12 title game, they will be 11-1 with some impressive wins and a conference championship. That will probably be good enough.
12. NC State
Record (AP Rank): 5-0 (16)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 17
Key games remaining: The Wolfpack have Clemson on the road this week. They follow that up with Syracuse on the road, FSU at home, and games on the road against Louisville and UNC.
One thing to know: For NC State, it all comes down to their game in Clemson this weekend. If they win, people will take them seriously. If they lose, they are out of the picture.
11. UCF
Record (AP Rank): 6-0 (10)
Last week's result: Beat Memphis, 31-30
Last week's playoff rank: 13
Key games remaining: UCF has Cincinnati and USF the final two weeks of the season.
One thing to know: Even though UCF survived Memphis and are still undefeated, it likely hurt their chances at the playoff. This team is just not as good as the 2017 team, and the committee is not going to put them in on some sort of 2-year achievement waiver. They still need a lot of help in front of them.
10. Florida
Record (AP Rank): 6-1 (11)
Last week's result: Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
Last week's playoff rank: 14
Key games remaining: Florida's only ranked remaining opponent is Georgia at a neutral site. They do have to go on the road to face Florida State.
One thing to know: Nothing about Florida screams, "playoff contender!" and yet, here they are, 6-1, and one win away from taking command of the SEC East. Of course, they still have to find a way to beat Georgia, and if they do that, they will need to beat Alabama. Seems, like a long-shot, but there is a path to the playoff.
9. Oklahoma
Record (AP Rank): 5-1 (9)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 11
Key games remaining: OU has TCU (this week), Texas Tech, and West Virginia on the road and Oklahoma State at home.
One thing to know: OU is in the same boat as Texas and West Virginia. Win out, win the Big 12 title game, and that will probably be enough. But they can't afford another loss or a close call to a second-tier team like Oklahoma State or Texas Tech. People will be looking for excuses to keep the Big 12 out, so they can't give them any.
8. Texas
Record (AP Rank): 6-1 (7)
Last week's result: Beat Baylor, 23-17
Last week's playoff rank: 10
Key games remaining: A home game against West Virginia, and road games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.
One thing to know: Texas is in a boat similar to Florida. Occasionally they look like they are on the brink of being great (e.g., wins over TCU and OU), but most of the time they look downright mediocre, like this past weekend's close call with Baylor.
7. LSU
Record (AP Rank): 6-1 (5)
Last week's result: Beat Georgia, 36-16
Last week's playoff rank: 16
Key games remaining: They still have to play Alabama and Mississippi State at home. They also have Texas A&M on the road.
One thing to know: Another huge hurdle down, a couple more to go. The path to the playoff is a daunting one, but it is pretty simple: LSU can't lose another game. The SEC is going to have a hard enough time getting a second team into the playoff if Notre Dame is undefeated and the depth of the conference suggests there will be other options if LSU is not in the SEC title game.
6. Georgia
Record (AP Rank): 6-1 (8)
Last week's result: Lost to LSU, 36-16
Last week's playoff rank: 2
Key games remaining: Georgia is in the middle of a 4-game stretch against ranked opponents. It started with LSU but still has Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn. Only the Auburn game is at home.
One thing to know: Yes, LSU just beat Georgia, but this is not about who the best teams are. This is about who has the best chance to make the playoff and Georgia still has the easier path to the playoff in the SEC East.
5. Michigan
Record (AP Rank): 6-1 (6)
Last week's result: Beat Wisconsin, 38-13
Last week's playoff rank: 9
Key games remaining: Michigan is in the middle of a 3-game stretch that started with Wisconsin, but still has Michigan State and Penn State. Of course, those are just appetizers for the showdown with Ohio State on the road.
One thing to know: Michigan was one of the biggest winners from chaos weekend as they now control their playoff destiny. The Big Ten rep in the playoff will likely come down to the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game.
4. Notre Dame
Record (AP Rank): 7-0 (4)
Last week's result: Beat Pitt, 19-14
Last week's playoff rank: 4
Key games remaining: Notre Dame's final four games are Northwestern on the road, FSU and Syracuse at home, and then USC in California.
One thing to know: Notre Dame was the other big winner this week. If the season ended today, they are in. The committee is not keeping out an undefeated team with wins over Michigan and Stanford.
3. Ohio State
Record (AP Rank): 7-0 (2)
Last week's result: Beat Minnesota, 30-14
Last week's playoff rank: 3
Key games remaining: Michigan State on the road and Michigan at home.
One thing to know: In theory, Ohio State could still make the playoff if they lose a game and somebody like Iowa wins the Big Ten championship. But that's asking a lot. It would be easier if they just beat Michigan and won the title themselves.
2. Clemson
Record (AP Rank): 6-0 (3)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 5
Key games remaining: Clemson's next two games are North Carolina State at home and FSU on the road.
One thing to know: A week ago, it was starting to look like Clemson was in danger of missing the playoff. But after losses by Georgia and Miami, the path has never looked easier. The Georgia loss hurts the chances of the SEC getting two teams in and the Miami loss probably makes the ACC title game an easier matchup for Clemson and thus a better chance of being undefeated.
1. Alabama
Record (AP Rank): 7-0 (1)
Last week's result: Beat Missouri, 39-10
Last week's playoff rank: 1
Key games remaining: Bama has three games remaining against teams currently in the Top 25. Auburn and Mississippi State is at home and LSU on the road.
One thing to know: Tua Tagovailoa was shaken up against Missouri. If he misses any action, that might be the only way anybody beats Alabama this season.
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