Telangana Bill Saves Congress From Extinction In Andhra Pradesh

HYDERABAD: With the passage of Telangana Bill by the Lok Sabha, the Congress party has saved itself from certain extinction in Andhra Pradesh. Assuming that the Bill will pass muster in the Rajya Sabha and will receive the President's assent, in the next Lok Sabha elections, the Congress along with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is likely to bag the lion's share of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the region. However, in residuary Andhra Pradesh, the Congress cannot be expected to get a single seat from the 25 Lok Sabha berths. This is compared to its 33 Lok Sabha seats it won in the 2009 elections and 29 in the 2004 elections.

But the party will not be expected to become defunct in residuary Andhra Pradesh: there will be a realignment of the caste composition of the party base. Presently controlled by the Reddys with the Kapus and the dalits as junior partners, the party is now expected to be taken over by the Kapus. The process of regeneration will however take a few years. The Reddys and dalits will gradually make a beeline for the YSR Congress party. However, some Kapus will be enticed by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). In the immediate future, the YSR Congress and the TDP will slug it out in the Seemandhra region.

For the Congress, it will be a matter of great relief if the TRS agrees to merge with the grand old party, but the bosses of the Telangana party have not yet agreed to this. In the forthcoming elections, the two are expected to have an electoral agreement.

The Telangana Bill could have never been passed in the Lok Sabha without the support of the BJP. The saffron party has had Telangana on its agenda for the past 40 years - even when the party was still the Jana Sangh. In the past few months, the BJP however had second thoughts about the move to support Telangana. This was under the influence of TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu and lobbying by business barons of Seemandhra region with Narendra Modi. But the RSS helped the BJP make up its mind. The diktat from Nagpur was clear: Support Telangana. This is our old agenda and there is a great scope for BJP to grow in Telangana. This is much more than what can be achieved in Seemandhra.

The BJP is now likely to harp on the fact that it is only with their help that the Telangana Bill was passed. So, it is them who should get the credit for the creation of the new state. Political analysts, however, aver that the benefit of this may not accrue to the saffron party immediately. But in a few years, the BJP will be a formidable force in the region. It may not be so in the Seemandhra region, but the BJP feels that the TDP may have no other option but to support them at the national level. However, the latest information suggests that the TDP may be in favour of a third front in New Delhi and not the BJP.

At a deeper level, politics will be transformed in the two regions by broad basing democracy. A close examination of the bio-data of MPs from Andhra Pradesh reveals that a large number of them are contractors and businessmen. Many of them have used their position to further their business interests and land up contracts. In fact, it is this lobby that has been in the forefront of the move to scuttle Telangana averring that the creation of the new state will scuttle their power. Now, these contractor businessmen - like Lagadapati Rajagopal- are expected to get out of business (politics). This will also mean that less money will be spend in elections - Andhra Pradesh being a state where the maximum amount of money is spent for polls.