Tucker Carlson's new Twitter show could spell doom for Elon Musk

• Tucker Carlson announced his next move: He's launching a show on Twitter.
• For Elon Musk, Twitter's owner, a Fox News-style show on the platform could cause problems.

Tucker Carlson's sudden exit from Fox News last month has fueled weeks of speculation about his next move. A last-minute entry in the race to the White House? A gig at a rival TV network? We finally have an answer: getting cozy with Elon Musk.

On Tuesday, the TV personality announced the launch of a talk show on Twitter, saying the platform was the last remaining bastion of free speech and launching into a tirade against the news media.

"At the most basic level, the news you consume is a lie," Carlson said.

For Musk, securing a character as popular as Carlson — whose prime-time show on Fox regularly attracted about 3 million viewers every night — is a big win, especially since Musk said "Twitter has not signed a deal of any kind whatsoever" with Carlson.

Free, Fox-style engagement certainly looks like a big victory for Musk. But if Carlson sticks with Twitter, he could be a big headache.

Carlson's new show will bring engagement. It'll also bring fury.

Since his debt-fueled $44 billion takeover of Twitter, Musk has seemed desperate to find ways to increase the monetization of a company that he has repeatedly said was on the brink of bankruptcy. Given Twitter's biggest source of revenue is advertisers, keeping them happy should be priority No. 1.

He should know how sensitive advertisers are to change after losing 50% of Twitter's top 100 advertisers within a month of taking over the site. Advertisers, who have spent $2 billion on Twitter since 2020, paused ads over concerns around misinformation and hate speech, with Musk firing many of the core staff tasked with moderation and safety. Musk said in an interview with the BBC last month that those advertisers had since returned to the platform, though data from Sensor Tower and Insider Intelligence suggests the return might not be as complete he claims.

An unchecked Carlson may bring greater user engagement at the expense of advertiser cash.

Little detail has been shared about which form his new show will take, but it's a safe bet the brash host will look to recreate the elements that kept viewers hooked to his Fox show — provocation. In his brief promotional clip, Carlson spoke openly about his views that the media manipulates viewers. He emphasized that "free speech is the main right" people have, a sign that commentary may be coming that Carlson felt he couldn't share even on Fox News.

Lou Paskalis, the chief strategy officer at Ad Fontes Media, told Semafor that the show was another example of Musk's Twitter being "purposely tone-deaf when it comes to advertisers' concerns about content moderation under the guise of free speech."

Musk is an "undisputed master of self-inflicted wounds in that regard," Paskalis said. He added that he was doubtful the Twitter chief would pursue a "left-leaning pundit" like MSNBC's Rachel Maddow.

Though Musk said, "Tucker is subject to the same rules & rewards of all content creators," close watchers note his tilt toward conservative figures. And if Carlson is on board, that paves the way for other, equally provocative creators to go big on Twitter.

And Twitter's competition is getting fiercer.

On Bluesky, the hyped social-media platform backed by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, users who once found Twitter to be their social app of choice have been posting about their new safe haven.

Dare Obasanjo, a software developer with more than 130,000 Twitter followers and who at the time of writing hadn't tweeted since May 3, said on Bluesky that being on Twitter was like being on Truth Social, "except the main character is less funny." It was "an L" that Carlson was hosting a show on Twitter, he added.

Meanwhile, Max Berger, another Bluesky user, said on the site that Twitter was "only going to get more cursed" in response to news that Carlson was launching a show there.

Musk faces a real risk that a growing number of Twitter users will feel the same way. Analysis in December suggested Twitter could lose more than 32 million users by 2024 in light of his broader changes to the platform.

If Carlson's show has diatribes akin to those of his Fox show, it could lead to an exodus of many more.