California movie theaters could reopen this weekend as Hollywood gears up for the release of 'Tenet' in July, but audiences could be wary

• The California Department of Public Health issued safety guidelines on Monday for reopening indoor movie theaters, with a recommended effective date no sooner than June 12.
• The National Association of Theatre Owners confirmed to Business Insider last week that it was expecting 90% of the global theatrical market to be open in time for "Tenet" on July 17.
• Morning Consult surveyed 2,200 US adults from June 2 to June 5 and found that 22% of all adults said they were currently comfortable attending a theater, up from 16% for the last survey in May.
• But with a $200 million production budget, Warner Bros. could be taking a big chance releasing "Tenet" while coronavirus concerns are still prevalent and theaters limit seating capacity.
• Box Office Pro chief analyst Shawn Robbins said that the studio could be thinking long term, as movies won't be as front-loaded at the box office when first released, but could remain in the top 10 for months because of limited competition.

The California Department of Public Health issued safety guidelines on Monday for reopening indoor movie theaters, which could happen as early as Friday.

It suggests potential good news for Warner Bros.' "Tenet," which is still on the theatrical release calendar for its original release date of July 17. It's the only major Hollywood film that wasn't pushed back amid the coronavirus pandemic as movie theaters across the world shut down.

The California guidelines suggest that each theater limit itself to 25% capacity or a maximum of 100 attendees, whichever is lower. The guidelines recommend theaters close or remove seats to maintain social distancing, and implement a reservation system "to limit the number of attendees entering the theater at a time whenever possible." They also suggest moviegoers wear face coverings when not eating or drinking.

The recommended effective date for the guidelines is no sooner than June 12.

California's guidelines don't necessarily mean that all theaters in the state will open their doors this weekend, but they suggest that theaters elsewhere could take the next steps to reopen in the coming weeks. Five of Cinemark's Texas theaters will reopen on June 19 for a "test phase" with plans to expand to approximately a third of its theaters the following weekend in bigger markets. Cineworld, which owns the Regal theater chain, expects all of its theaters to reopen in July.

The National Association of Theatre Owners, the largest movie-theater trade group that represents theaters across the US, confirmed to Business Insider last week that it was expecting 90% of the global theatrical market to be open in time for "Tenet."

Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi said that Warner Bros. and "Tenet" director Christopher Nolan were "optimistic" during the company's earnings call last week.

"We've been in close contact with Warner Bros. and they remain optimistic and positive as well as Christopher Nolan about the July 17 opening," Zoradi said. "Of course, it depends on the continued positive movement due to the decline of COVID-19 and government restrictions being reduced."

Will audiences be ready to go to movie theaters in July?

"Tenet" cost $200 million to produce, so Warner Bros. could be taking a big change releasing it when coronavirus concerns are still prevalent. Even if the majority of theaters in the world are open come July 17, safety guidelines that limit capacity would likely be implemented.

And then there's the question of whether moviegoers would even want to go to a movie theater in July.

According to Morning Consult, the share of consumers who say they would be comfortable attending a movie theater has been increasing since mid-May. Morning Consult surveyed 2,200 US adults from June 2 to June 5 and found that 22% said they were currently comfortable attending a theater, up from 16% for the last survey in May. But the number was still below that of going out to eat or going to a shopping mall.

Business Insider spoke to two "Tenet" crew members, who wished to remain anonymous because they weren't authorized to speak about the movie publicly, about whether they would be comfortable with attending a movie theater to see "Tenet."

"If it were tomorrow, I would say no," one person said. "It depends what the [coronavirus] numbers are then."

"I wouldn't personally watch it in a theater for my own safety unless there were clear guidelines and employees were making sure everyone were following them," another said. "If the theaters are secure and clean I will most likely be there."

Warner Bros. could be thinking about the long-term performance of "Tenet." Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst for Box Office Pro, noted to Business Insider that movies won't be as front loaded this year when they come to theaters, but with less competition, have a chance to "stick around longer" at the box office.

"A movie could be in the top 10 for three or four months instead of three or four weeks," Robbins said.

If "Tenet" does hit theaters in July, it will act as a test for other movies set to be released this summer. Disney moved its "Mulan" remake from March to July 24 and Warner Bros. moved "Wonder Woman 1984" from June to August 14.