Apple's new Vision Pro is amazing, but there's no good reason to buy it, and lots of reasons not to

• Apple has chosen AR/VR as the next big area to pursue with its new Vision Pro glasses.
• This is a big gamble with a fatal flaw, columnist Michael Gartenberg argues.

The long-rumored Apple AR/VR glasses are here. The product, which was shown off during an extensive demo by Apple on Monday, is called Apple Vision Pro (AVP). It represents years of research and the first major Apple product launched without the guiding hand and showmanship of the late Steve Jobs (if one doesn't count the Apple AirPods or Watch as major new products, and I do not.)

This version-one product also comes with a $3,500 price tag that will likely appeal only to the Apple faithful, Apple developers looking to write apps for the device and, perhaps, Silicon Valley VCs looking for accessories to go with their Patagonia vests.

Apple has been successful in disrupting markets with its products in the past, such as the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. However, I do not believe that Apple can do it again with this product and this market for a whole bunch of reasons.

The first reason is that the augmented and virtual reality market is already crowded with competitors like Meta, Microsoft, and Magic Leap, with billions of dollars and generations of hardware already invested. Meta's $299 Quest 2 topped over 20 million units sold as the biggest VR success story to date, while Sony's gaming-focused PS VR managed to build on the 100-million-plus PlayStation 4 consoles already in customers' homes. Both cost a fraction of AVP and satisfy the needs for most consumers, namely playing games.

None so far have had a breakthrough mass market moment. And the Vision Pro isn't likely to have one either. Apple showcased beautiful technology demos but few truly novel use cases beyond what users already get today with devices they own, albeit in a less dramatic fashion.

With just their eyes, consumers already have large-screen viewing and playing experiences with 4K monitors on their walls connected to excellent video game consoles. And AVP is certainly not something a family can use for movie night. It's not clear yet whether this device offers multi user accounts so that many people can share in the same VR experience – like watching a movie – or if the device itself can be shared among family members.

Plus, this type of dream, a digital world imposed upon a real one, has been around since the 1980s. The technology has improved, but Apple didn't show any killer app, just a way to do existing things larger and in three dimensions. I don't believe the maxim that "if it's from Apple, it will succeed where all others have failed."

While we tend to remember the successes of iPod and iPhone, Apple has failed at hardware (and software) products before: AVP could usher in a new product line for Apple, but it just as easily could end up on the discard heap of the company's history alongside the Puck Mouse, G4 Cube, iTunes Ping, Mobile Me, AirPower, and the infamous "butterfly keyboard."

While AVP offers beautiful VR/AR experiences, it also comes with a host of caveats and qualifiers beyond the price tag such as a two-hour battery life from an external battery pack or the need to plug it into a wall. If the astronomic price wasn't enough, the uncharacteristically un-Apple-like rough edges practically warn all but the most devout of Apple adherents to stay clear of what is obviously a first-generation product in need of refinement and a major price drop down the line.

The stakes are high for Apple, which needs a new hardware anchor to expand into, with Mac sales stagnant and even the company's core iPhone sales seeing their first dip last quarter compared to a year ago.

AVP is a gamble on what the future of Apple — and personal computing in general — could be. AVP is also a sign of the company's ambition. It features advanced new chips (it uses the same new M2 chips that powers the Mac but also a specially made R2 chip); two 4K displays the size of postage stamps that give the illusion of large screens; advances in spatial audio and eye tracking and so on.

If Apple can indeed make this mainstream, with a large marketing budget to convince consumers they not only want this thing but need it, it will be the biggest innovation since the introduction of Macintosh in 1984 and a major coup for the company, a total game-changer. It's the type of product only a company with $50 billion dollars of cash can afford to bring to market (even if it becomes a company with $30 billion dollars for its efforts).

Then again, if AVP flops, it'd be on a scale several orders of magnitude greater than a dodgy wireless charger or failed Twitter clone.

It could end up like the Macintosh when Windows PCs first came to market. Consumers were willing to accept a good enough, similar experience with much lower price points.

Apple making the best VR headset with the current state of 2023 technology could be a little like making the best hydrogen blimp in the 1930s: the best iteration of a bad idea is still a tough sell.