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Apple's most important product launch in years could be in jeopardy, but Wall Street didn't ask about it once during the company's earnings call

Lisa Eadicicco   

Apple's most important product launch in years could be in jeopardy, but Wall Street didn't ask about it once during the company's earnings call
Tech4 min read

  • Apple's anticipated 5G iPhone is expected to arrive in the fall, but multiple reports have suggested it could be delayed.
  • The iPhone, which is Apple's most important product, was in a sales slump throughout 2019, and the coronavirus pandemic isn't helping it recover.
  • Although analysts have brought up Apple's plans for 5G on past earnings calls, it did not come up during the Q2 call on Thursday despite recent reports about a delay.
  • Some analysts say any delays or weakened demand stemming from the virus will not impact the company's long-term success.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Apple provided its first glimpse at how the coronavirus has impacted its business on Thursday when it reported its second-quarter earnings. While Apple generated more revenue than analysts had expected, the quarter still looked far different than Apple had expected before the COVID-19 crisis upended daily life and rattled the economy.

The report provided some answers about how Apple's core business segments are performing. But there's still a big question lingering over the company's business as the second half of 2020 approaches. And it didn't come up once on Apple's earnings call with analysts: How will the pandemic impact the development and reception of Apple's anticipated 5G iPhone?

Recent reports have painted an unclear picture of what to expect from Apple's typical fall iPhone launch. That's critical because although Apple's services and wearables divisions are growing, the iPhone still generates far more revenue for Apple than any other product. And the long-rumored iPhone 12, expected to be Apple's first 5G iPhone, is projected to drive significant upgrades.

Some analysts, like those from JPMorgan and Wedbush Securities, think it's plausible that Apple's anticipated 5G iPhone could be delayed by a couple of months. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, who has become the most reliable source of Apple leaks, has said some versions of Apple's next iPhone may launch a few weeks later than planned, but will still likely debut in the fall timeframe.

If this is true, it wouldn't be the first time Apple has launched new iPhones outside of its typical September release window. The iPhone X launched in November 2017 after being unveiled that September, while the iPhone XR debuted in October 2018.

Should that be the case this year, Apple would still benefit from launching its iPhone before the all-important holiday holiday season.

A bigger potential issue for Apple may not be whether the iPhone 12's launch is delayed, but whether there will be enough demand for a high-end iPhone. With jobless claims in the US reaching 30 million over the past six weeks as the coronavirus has disrupted the economy, it's unclear whether those in the window of an upgrade would be willing to pay nearly $1,000 for a new iPhone.

The Japanese financial news site Nikkei Asian Review reported in March that Apple has discussed delaying the release of the expected iPhone 12 because it's concerned that "the current situation would significantly lower consumer appetite."

Apple CEO Tim Cook addressed the current state of consumer demand on the call, saying that it has seen an uptick across the board in the second half of April. But for the most part, analysts didn't question how the pandemic could impact future product development and demand.

Daniel Flax, a senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman, believes weak demand could be a risk for Apple and most other companies. Still, he doesn't think Apple will be hurt in the long term.

"I think what's important though is that [Apple] has a very strong balance sheet, and you have a management team that's continuing to innovate and invest in their products and services," Flax said to Business Insider. "It is likely that Apple is going to come out stronger on the other side."

Given the high expectations around Apple's 5G iPhone's, it's a little surprising that such concerns were not brought up when Apple executives fielded answers from analysts on Thursday. Even before the iPhone 11 and 11 Pro were announced last fall, analysts had pegged the upcoming 5G iPhone as being the jolt the company needed to pull Apple out of its iPhone sales slump.

It's possible that the iPhone 11 and 11 Pro's better-than-expected performance in Apple's fiscal first quarter has calmed some of these concerns. Apple's iPhone sales fell again in its fiscal second quarter, but expectations were already low considering Apple previously said it didn't expect to meet its initial second-quarter revenue guidance.

Another possibility is that analysts didn't want to bother asking a question that Apple wouldn't be willing to address— or even have the answer to yet. When the subject came up on last quarter's earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook said global 5G deployment is still in its "early innings."

Plus, there's still time for production on a fall iPhone to ramp up, says Robert Muller, enterprise hardware analyst for RBC Capital Markets.

"The late July call will probably have questions on the issue," Muller said to Business Insider via email. "However, again we know the answer will be 'we don't comment on future products.'"

While it's true that Apple rarely if ever discusses upcoming products before they're announced, that hasn't stopped analysts from probing the tech giant about its roadmap in the past. Even on Thursday's call, some questions about Apple's forward-looking strategy did come up — just not as it relates to the 5G iPhone.

Overall, Apple's second-quarter earnings didn't reveal much that wasn't already known. Yes, like just about every company, the COVID-19 crisis has posed challenges to Apple's business. Yes, Apple's services and wearables businesses are still doing very well, and are serving as a bright spot amid slowing iPhone sales as they have in other recent quarters.

And, above all, there's still a lot of uncertainty about what the future may hold for the iPhone and Apple's business more broadly. In an unusual move, Apple did not offer revenue guidance for the June quarter because of uncertainties around the virus in the near term.

Cook did say, however, that the company has adapted to working from home and that the iPhone SE and iPad Pro have proved the company's business is continuing even during these difficult times.

"And so, while we can't say for sure how many chapters are in this book," Cook said, "we can have confidence that the ending will be a good one."

Read the original article on Business Insider

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