Swing voters are on the fence about impeaching Trump, but are more inclined to favor it
- Over 40% of respondents polled by Insider who are undecided in 2020 aren't sure whether or not they support impeaching President Donald Trump.
- A third of them said they support a formal impeachment, and a quarter said they oppose it.
- Despite the uncertainty over articles of impeachment, a lot of swing voters back House Democrats' impeachment inquiry into Trump: 44% said they favor the inquiry, and only 26% were undecided.
- Results showed that more than half of Americans support the impeachment inquiry overall. If Democrats can appeal to those who are unsure, they stand a good chance of driving up public favor.
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Popular support for a House impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump may be rising, even among swing voters. A new Insider poll found that swing voters aren't sure whether or not they support impeachment - but considerably more favor it than those who don't.
Following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement that the House would begin a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump on Tuesday, Insider polled over 1,000 adults nationwide on their feelings about impeachment and their 2020 voting preferences.
Respondents were asked "Who do you think you will vote for in the 2020 general election?" with options that included "Probably the Democratic nominee," "Probably the Republican nominee," "Neither / I don't intend to vote" and "I'm not sure at this time." For the purposes of this analysis, those who selected that last option were categorized as "swing voters."
When asked, "Impeachment is the first step in the process of removing a president from office. Do you think the House of Representatives should impeach President Trump?" a large number of swing voters responded with uncertainty:
- 33.5% said they "support" or "strongly support" impeachment.
- 23.8% said they "oppose" or "strongly oppose" impeachment.
- 42.6% said they either "don't know" or "neither support nor oppose" impeachment.
An investigation of Trump is favored by a substantial minority
Like Americans on the whole, swing voters are less shy about weighing in on an impeachment inquiry - an investigation that is typically the harbinger of official charges, or articles of impeachment, being imposed on the president.
When asked, "Do you believe launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump for soliciting foreign interference in a US election is the right thing to do?" a lot of swing voters said they support an inquiry:
- 44.3% said "yes" or "definitely yes."
- 29% said "probably not" or "definitely not."
- 26.7% said "I don't know."
Democrats are well-poised to drum up public support for impeachment
Despite the sizable amount of uncertainty among swing voters, results showed significantly more support for beginning an impeachment than opposition. Undecided voters backed impeachment by 10 percentage points more than they opposed it, and backed an impeachment inquiry by 15 points more than they opposed it - no slim margins.
Part of the uncertainty likely owes to a lack of knowledge on the matter. Only a third of those polled overall reported that they were familiar with the situation, involving a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that led to the impeachment inquiry.
Still, the numbers suggest that Democrats have an advantage in public opinion. If they can allay apprehension among the undecided, the scales will tip more strongly to their side.
Read more:
POLL: Americans support the impeachment inquiry into Trump, but they worry about electoral blowback
SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn't try to weight its sample based on race or income. Total 1,096 respondents collected September 25-26, 2019, a margin of error plus or minus 3.04 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. Download the respondent-level data here.