India could lose a quarter of its economy by 2070 – here’s why

The reality of climate change is hitting hard in Asia, and India is facing one of the biggest risks. According to the Asian Development Bank's Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024, India could lose as much as 24.7% of its GDP by 2070 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels. As the climate crisis deepens, India and other vulnerable nations in the region will need to prepare for serious challenges to their economies, environments, and societies.

Rising sea levels and heat impacts on workers

One of the biggest threats India faces is rising sea levels, which could affect millions of people and trillions of dollars in assets by 2070. Coastal flooding will likely impact major cities like Mumbai and Chennai, requiring costly protective infrastructure. As Asian Development Bank President Masatsugu Asakawa said, sea-level rise and powerful storms are likely to “supercharge the devastation” that India will face.

Another serious challenge is how extreme heat will affect worker productivity. As temperatures and humidity rise, people working outdoors or without air conditioning, especially in sectors like agriculture and construction, will struggle to work at their full capacity. This loss in productivity is expected to cost India heavily, especially since so much of its economy depends on labour-intensive industries

Flooding and infrastructure risks

Intensified storms and heavy rains are also expected to cause more severe flooding, particularly in river basins like the Ganges. According to ADB models, by 2070, economic damages from river floods across Asia could reach $1.3 trillion annually, impacting 110 million people each year. India, especially its densely populated and flood-prone areas, is likely to see high losses, particularly for housing and infrastructure.
Beyond immediate damage, such flooding will also drive up long-term repair costs. Without major investments in infrastructure to handle these risks, India’s overall economy could suffer greatly.

Rising emissions and India’s role

While Asia’s developed economies were the biggest greenhouse gas emitters in the past, emerging economies like India and China have seen the fastest growth in emissions since 2000. Today, Asia contributes nearly 46% of the world’s emissions, up from 29.4% in 2000. India’s fast-paced industrial growth has been crucial for its development, but it also means the country has a big role to play in reducing emissions.

With a population over 1.4 billion, India’s per capita emissions remain lower than the global average, but the need for climate action is clear. According to the report, countries with high emissions are especially vulnerable to climate threats, and greater emission reductions could help mitigate these risks.

Public support for climate action is strong in India, mirroring trends across Asia. In a recent ADB survey, 91% of people across the region said they view climate change as a serious problem, highlighting the need for government action to improve policies and invest in climate-resistant infrastructure.
However, adapting to climate change comes with a high price tag. The report estimates that to effectively manage climate risks, Asia-Pacific nations will need annual investments of $102 billion to $431 billion. In 2021–2022, however, tracked funding only reached about $34 billion. India will need significant boosts in both public and private sector funding to make up this gap. Changes like improving property rights and phasing out subsidies that lead to unsustainable practices are some steps that could help attract private investment.

ADB President Asakawa emphasises the need for “urgent, well-coordinated climate action” across Asia to tackle these rising challenges. For India, collaborative efforts with other countries and organisations will be key to securing the resources needed for adaptation, resilience, and mitigation efforts. With proactive policies, sustainable investments, and regional cooperation, India can minimise the worst impacts of climate change and work toward a safer, more resilient future.