Gen Z and Alpha-ers are set to outlive polar bears, if we don’t act in time
Sep 23, 2024, 16:44 IST
Polar bears may look tough (and dangerously cuddly), but they’re no match for their biggest enemy yet: melting sea ice. These majestic animals, once the apex predators of the Arctic, are now in danger of extinction within the next few decades. This may leave many Gen Z and Alpha kids — those born roughly between 1997 and 2030 — watching nature documentaries about polar bears the way we do about dinosaurs.
This might sound like good news, but polar bears now have to grapple with an even bigger threat than hunting: the loss of their habitat. As the Arctic ice melts at unprecedented rates, their primary hunting ground is disappearing.
Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt seals, their main food source, and without it, they are forced onto land where food is scarce. This means that future projections are bleak, to say the least. A report by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2007 warned that if Arctic warming continues at its current pace, two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by 2050.
However, more recent studies paint an even darker picture, with a 2020 study even concluding that without intervention to slow emissions, most polar bears could vanish by the end of this century — not a lot of legroom to adapt for these furry giants. By the end of the century, polar bears are expected to survive only in Canada’s most northernmost cluster of islands, if things progress business-as-usual. A sliver of legroom.
All in all, the disappearance of sea ice is thus causing the bears to have to travel longer distances to find food. Their inability to stock up on grubs will inevitably leave their bodies fasting for months at an end, leading to starvation, lower reproductive rates, and an eventual higher mortality. Even if worldwide greenhouse emissions are moderately mitigated, most polar bear populations in the Arctic are expected to experience catastrophic reproductive failure by 2080.
“It’s been clear for some time that polar bears are going to suffer under climate change,” explains polar bear expert Péter Molnár. “But what was not fully clear was when we would expect major declines in the survival and reproduction of polar bears that could ultimately lead to their extirpation. We didn’t know whether that would happen early or later in this century.”
This also means that while human life expectancy continues to increase, polar bears face a much shorter future. With their average lifespan in the wild ranging up to 25 years (rarely, that too), the population of polar bears on the planet may not survive the century unless major actions are taken to combat climate change. By 2100, when the youngest members of Gen Alpha are in their old age, polar bears may already be extinct in many parts of the world.
As mentioned earlier, a polar bears' survival is tied directly to the presence of sea ice, which is projected to take decades to recover even if carbon emissions were reduced immediately. Experts have thus emphasised that as more bears are driven ashore by melting ice, northern communities will inevitably face increasing conflicts with the animals. In these cases, interventions such as relocating bears or feeding them, may become necessary.
“With something like polar bears, where you’re not going to get their habitat back, it’s not clear we’re going to try to hold on to these populations everywhere,” notes renowned polar bear expert Andrew Derocher. “If we start to see a large number of bears on land dying of starvation, what kind of interventions would we get into?”
One bear recently already made the headlines after being shot dead after unknowingly making its way to a remote Icelandic village. As global warming runs its course, the world is likely to see more of these tragic “interventions”.
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From thriving to simply surviving
Serving at the tippy top of their food chain, polar bears only found a threat in human beings for the longest time. Scores of these majestic creatures were hunted down for a variety of reasons, including food, clothing, handicrafts.. and sometimes, just for the thrill of it. Then the 1973 international hunting ban came into place, helping polar bear populations finally stabilise. This was one of the biggest conservation stories of the 21st century, with some estimates suggesting that the ban had helped their numbers doubled, reaching around 26,000 today. Even fifty years after the hunting ban, polar bear numbers are stable or increasing across most of their range, indicates a 2023 report by Global Warming Policy Foundation.This might sound like good news, but polar bears now have to grapple with an even bigger threat than hunting: the loss of their habitat. As the Arctic ice melts at unprecedented rates, their primary hunting ground is disappearing.
Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt seals, their main food source, and without it, they are forced onto land where food is scarce. This means that future projections are bleak, to say the least. A report by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2007 warned that if Arctic warming continues at its current pace, two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by 2050.
However, more recent studies paint an even darker picture, with a 2020 study even concluding that without intervention to slow emissions, most polar bears could vanish by the end of this century — not a lot of legroom to adapt for these furry giants. By the end of the century, polar bears are expected to survive only in Canada’s most northernmost cluster of islands, if things progress business-as-usual. A sliver of legroom.
Why can’t they just.. hunt more?
While there are many factors for this projected population decline, the main one is the fact that the Arctic ice, which polar bears rely on for hunting, is melting at unprecedented rates. Seals use breathing holes in the ice to surface, and polar bears rely on this behaviour to catch them. Polar bears are strong swimmers but cannot catch seals in open water, as seals are much faster in the water. Therefore, sea ice is crucial because it provides access to seals, allowing polar bears to ambush them or break through the ice at breathing holes. Without ice, polar bears are forced onto land, where they have far fewer hunting opportunities, leading to starvation and population decline.All in all, the disappearance of sea ice is thus causing the bears to have to travel longer distances to find food. Their inability to stock up on grubs will inevitably leave their bodies fasting for months at an end, leading to starvation, lower reproductive rates, and an eventual higher mortality. Even if worldwide greenhouse emissions are moderately mitigated, most polar bear populations in the Arctic are expected to experience catastrophic reproductive failure by 2080.
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“It’s been clear for some time that polar bears are going to suffer under climate change,” explains polar bear expert Péter Molnár. “But what was not fully clear was when we would expect major declines in the survival and reproduction of polar bears that could ultimately lead to their extirpation. We didn’t know whether that would happen early or later in this century.”
This also means that while human life expectancy continues to increase, polar bears face a much shorter future. With their average lifespan in the wild ranging up to 25 years (rarely, that too), the population of polar bears on the planet may not survive the century unless major actions are taken to combat climate change. By 2100, when the youngest members of Gen Alpha are in their old age, polar bears may already be extinct in many parts of the world.
What can be done?
Saving polar bears is not just about protecting a single species, but about preserving entire ecosystems and addressing the broader environmental crisis. Arctic sea ice is crucial not only for polar bears but for the global climate system. Therefore, as climate change continues to erode the Arctic sea ice, polar bear managers may be forced to explore extreme measures like relocating polar bears to regions where ice remains or supplementing their food supply.As mentioned earlier, a polar bears' survival is tied directly to the presence of sea ice, which is projected to take decades to recover even if carbon emissions were reduced immediately. Experts have thus emphasised that as more bears are driven ashore by melting ice, northern communities will inevitably face increasing conflicts with the animals. In these cases, interventions such as relocating bears or feeding them, may become necessary.
“With something like polar bears, where you’re not going to get their habitat back, it’s not clear we’re going to try to hold on to these populations everywhere,” notes renowned polar bear expert Andrew Derocher. “If we start to see a large number of bears on land dying of starvation, what kind of interventions would we get into?”
One bear recently already made the headlines after being shot dead after unknowingly making its way to a remote Icelandic village. As global warming runs its course, the world is likely to see more of these tragic “interventions”.
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It is certain that future generations will inherit a planet radically different from the one we know today. Fortunately, Gen Z and Alpha are a very proactive bunch, with many far more engaged in climate activism than previous generations. However, if they will be able to extract meaningful change in time to stop the planet from tipping over in polar bear extinction territory remains to be seen.