SURVATION BREXIT POLL: It is Remain's referendum to lose
- Survation phone poll: Remain 54 / Leave 46
- Leave's share hasn't improved since Survation's last poll
A new Survation opinion poll conducted on behalf of financial trading group IG shows that the Leave campaign is failing to make up any notable ground on Remain with just four weeks to go until the EU referendum.
The phone poll asked 1,000 Britons how they intended to vote in the upcoming referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union.
The results show that 54% of respondents plan to vote for Britain to stay in the 28-nation bloc, compared to 46% who said they'll back a Brexit, excluding undecided voters.
Importantly, these numbers haven't changed at all since Survation's last opinion poll. This means that the Brexit campaign isn't even close to forcing the major shift in public sentiment that it needs to win the referendum.
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The 18% of respondents who initially said that they were unsure how they'll vote on June 23 were then asked:
"If the referendum was today and you had to choose, would you Vote for the UK to leave the European Union / Vote for the UK to remain a member of the European Union, or would you not vote?"
Once the responses to this question were added, the updated results showed an increased lead of 10 points for Remain.
This confirms the general impression that undecided voters are more likely to lean towards the status quo option as it is perceived as more sensible and less of a risk.
The results of the most recent Survation poll are the latest in a series of surveys conducted over the phone that has shown leads for the Remain campaign ranging from steady to very commanding.
As Business Insider has explained recently, a distinct discrepancy exists between the results of EU referendum polls conducted over the phone and online. Phone polls have consistently given comfortable leads to Remain, while online it is a much closer contest.
Number Cruncher Politics polling analyst Matt Singh maintains that the actual probability of Britain voting to leave the EU on June 23 is really low. His latest forecast said that the chances of a Brexit were just 17.4%.