Why "buying the dip" is not always good advice, and the right time to start is now

How often have you been asked to invest more money in the markets, every time the market goes southwards, or experiences a correction? How many times have you been advised to "buy the dip", every time Sensex or Nifty nosedives? The rationale you're given is that this way, you'll acquire quality stocks at lower prices, which will eventually appreciate and grow when the market recovers from its short-term, temporary decline.

However, a recent report by PGIM India Mutual Fund suggests that this advice might not always yield great benefits. That is, buying the dip might not always serve as a wise investment strategy. Relying consistently just on this plan of action during every dip do not guarantee positive returns

Per the report, between April 1, 2020 and October 4, 2024, the BSE500 index has delivered returns at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 32%. Out of this, it remained in the green i.e. generated positive returns for 39 months, with an average of 4.3% monthly returns. For the 15 months which saw a drawdown, the average monthly dip did not exceed 2.6%.

Surprisingly, over the past 4.5 years, especially post the pandemic, investors seem to have put in 2x the money during the time of such drawdowns, as opposed to the times when the market was up.

Between April 1, 2024 and October 4, 2024, the average daily domestic investment made in BSE500 was a staggering Rs 914 crore, when it was down. On the days it was on an uptrend, investors only poured in Rs 443 crore. Notably, domestic investment takes into account from Indian individuals, NRIs and domestic institutional investors (DIIs).

Don't just rely on dips to start investing

Recent data from CapitalMind PMS shows that there is not much difference in terms of returns earned by a regular investor (A) who does not time his/her entry in the market, someone who invests when the markets are at peak (B), and someone who enters the market when it has bottomed out (C).

Assume that each A,B and C invested Rs 1 lakh every year between 2000-2004 in the Nifty. In this case, C would end up earning up returns at the rate of 14.1%, or Rs 1.91 crore. As for B, who entered when the markets were at a high, the returns would be Rs 1.24 crore, at the rate of 12%.

But the average investor i.e. A would end up with Rs 1.54 crore, earning returns at a healthy 13% rate. The lesson? The best time to start investing in the markets is now. Don't wait for a market correction to start the same.