We won't see peak oil demand in our lifetime, JPMorgan's top energy strategist says

• We won't see oil demand peak in our lifetime, JPMorgan's top energy strategist said.
• That's because there is a huge hidden demand from emerging markets.

Peak oil demand? Not in this lifetime, according to JPMorgan's top energy strategist.

That's because demand for oil in emerging markets is much stronger than we can currently see, Christyan Malek said in an interview on Tuesday on Bloomberg TV.

"That intrinsic demand that is not visible is so significant that we don't see demand peaking - I don't think we'll see demand peaking in our lifetimes," he said. "Particularly as demand growth in [emerging markets] continues to surprise the upside."

That prediction sharply contrasts that of the International Energy Administration's Fatih Birol, who expects fossil fuel demand to peak this decade. Malek, however, thinks "invisible," unobservable demand from energy-poor nations is highly underestimated, and that growth (which is less predictable) will steadily outpace supply (more predictable), creating tightness in the market.

"There is no massive quantum of volume that we don't know about that's coming into the market over the next two to three years, and that ultimately means it's not "if" but "when" does the market tighten. Even as we see potential surprises," he said.

US oil production has caught markets off guard this year, and has helped keep downward pressure on prices with a glut of supply. Daily US crude production notched a record of over 13.2 million barrels a day in September, according to the Energy Information Administration. Other non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana have also been pumping oil at higher rates.

That supply boom coincides with steep output cuts from OPEC+ nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Last month, energy market veteran Paul Sankey said that Saudi Arabia would unleash a flood of supply in the oil market to regain control over oil prices.

"I've seen a lot of discussion around surpluses next year, and we could talk about OPEC, but in the end, the biggest litmus test that we have to see when the market tightens is when OPEC, led by Saudi, adds volume to the market," Malek said.