Warren Buffett may have ditched airline stocks and spent $20 billion on stock buybacks, investor Chris Bloomstran says
- Warren Buffett may have sold his airline stakes and spent more than $20 billion on stock buybacks last quarter, Chris Bloomstran, head of Semper Augustus Investments, told Business Insider.
- The billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway boss probably hasn't bought many other stocks, and might struggle to strike bailout deals in the face of government aid and fierce competition, Bloomstran said.
- Berkshire wouldn't hesitate to splurge $100 billion on Buffett's long-awaited "elephant-sized acquisition."
- "They would absolutely do it if the right elephant came along," Bloomstran said.
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Warren Buffett has been silent as stock markets roil and oil prices plunge, fueling speculation about what he's up to.
The famed investor and Berkshire Hathaway boss may have ditched airlines and plowed more than $20 billion into stock buybacks, but probably hasn't bought many other stocks or struck any big bailout deals, according to a fund manager and Berkshire shareholder of more than two decades.
Chris Bloomstran, head of Semper Augustus Investments, dedicated more than 50 pages to Berkshire analysis in his latest letter to clients. SAI held about $60 million worth of Berkshire stock at last count, making it the fund's biggest holding. He spoke to Business Insider by telephone and email at the end of last week.
Parachuting out of airline stocks
Berkshire owned between 8% and 11% of the "big four" airlines — American, Delta, United, and Southwest — at the end of December. It sold $390 million worth of Delta and Southwest stock a few weeks ago, and that may have been just the start.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see the investments in the airlines either gone or greatly eliminated," Bloomstran said.
As governments across the globe continue to restrict travel, and millions of people stay at home to slow the spread of the coronavirus, demand for air travel has plummeted. Delta's passenger numbers have plunged 95%, forcing it to slash its flights by 85%.
The result is that airlines face a deeply uncertain future, even after accepting billions in grants and loans from the US Treasury. In exchange, the government demanded warrants allowing it to purchase the airlines' shares at a discount in the future — a strategy inspired by Buffett's bailouts during the financial crisis.
"It's hard to tell how long it will take for capacity utilization to recover sufficiently, and if the virus compels restrictions on travel beyond another couple months, the airlines will require more liquidity to avoid restructurings," Bloomstran said. "Even Berkshire doesn't have those answers."
Buying Berkshire and not much else
Berkshire probably hasn't plowed billions into its stock portfolio during the coronavirus sell-off.
"My sense is they've not been that active," Bloomstran said.
Berkshire is mainly focused on weathering the "worst typhoon that's ever happened," Buffett's longtime partner, Charlie Munger, recently told The Wall Street Journal.
However, the company has probably bought a bunch of its own stock.
"I would be surprised if they didn't repurchase at least $20 billion during the first quarter," Bloomstran said. He added that buybacks are a "hugely beneficial use of capital" when shares are trading significantly below their intrinsic value.
Bailouts could prove elusive
Buffett famously bailed out Goldman Sachs, General Electric, and Bank of America during the financial crisis. While he's reportedly eyeing troubled travel, lodging, and entertainment businesses, he's unlikely to strike as many bailout deals this time around.
The "big four" airlines never called Buffett before they accepted government bailouts, and "the phone is not ringing off the hook," Munger told The Journal last week.
The slump in demand for Buffett's services isn't surprising, Bloomstran said.
"If Buffett's going to provide capital, he's going do it on Berkshire's terms, which is costly," he explained. "Why would an airline go to Berkshire Hathaway when they've lobbied the government to give them the money for free?"
Moreover, any big companies that go up for sale are likely to attract multiple suitors, Bloomstran said, and Berkshire famously avoids bidding wars.
Once the Federal Reserve stops plowing trillions into the US economy and corporate coffers run dry, more bailout opportunities could emerge, he added.
Waiting for the right elephant
Armed with Berkshire's ample dry powder, Buffett continues to hunt for an "elephant-sized acquisition." Sky-high valuations and rival suitors have prevented him from pulling the trigger, but the current downturn could mean it's open season.
Executives might balk at selling their companies at depressed valuations, Bloomstran cautioned. However, Berkshire would fork out as much as $100 billion if it made sense, he added.
"I wouldn't rule it out," Bloomstran said. "They would absolutely do it if the right elephant came along."
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