US stocks fall to start the 3rd quarter as Fed forecast suggests a recession is already here

• US stocks kicked off the third quarter with more losses on Friday as recession concerns continue to rise.
• The US may already be in a recession based off of the Federal Reserve's most recent GDPNow forecast.
• US GDP growth fell 1.6% in the first quarter, and now the Fed forecasts a Q2 decline of 1.0%.

US stocks kicked off the third quarter on Friday adding to losses from the first half of the year, as investor concerns about a coming recession continue to rise.

And there's cause for concern, as the Fed's most recent GDP forecast suggests that America may already be in a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast lowered its second-quarter GDP growth estimate to negative 1.0% this week, which would follow the first quarter's GDP growth decline of 1.6%. If the Fed's forecast is accurate, investor concerns will shift to how long and deep the recession is from debating whether one will even arrive.

Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Friday:

• S&P 500: 3,778.90, down 0.17%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 30,741.84, down 0.11% (33.59 points)
• Nasdaq Composite: 10,958.36, down 0.64%

Michael Burry of "The Big Short" believes that the market's current 20% decline is only half-way done, as the famed investor now expects a considerable decline in earnings results from companies.

Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%," Burry tweeted on Thursday. "That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there."

A decline in interest rates flowed through to mortgage rates this week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage falling to 5.7%, according to data from Freddie Mac. That decline helped push lumber prices higher by more than 7% on Thursday.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has moved to seize control of the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project, threatening to push out major foreign players including Shell. The move could put continued upside pressure on gas prices going forward.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose as much as much as 2.56% to $108.38 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, jumped as much as 2.39% to $111.64.

Bitcoin fell 2.00% to $19,321. Ether prices fell 0.11% to $1,052.

Gold fell as much as 0.80% to $1,792.80 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 8 basis points to 2.89%.