Millions of lost US jobs will go unreplenished for years, according to IRS forecast

• US employment is likely to be lower by millions of jobs for years following the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing recession, according to a Thursday report from the IRS.
• The IRS report estimates that about 229.4 million W-2 forms — which report earnings from work — will be filed for the 2020 tax year, about 37 million fewer than the year before.
• The IRS sees lower W-2 filings persisting through at least 2027, with nearly 10 million fewer forms filed for that tax year compared with 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

Lower employment could persist in the US for years following the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Thursday report from the IRS.

The IRS report estimates that about 229.4 million W-2 forms — which show employee wages and withholding — will be filed in 2021 for the 2020 tax year, about 37 million fewer than in the year before.

Beyond 2021, the IRS sees lower W-2 filings persisting throughout at least 2027, with roughly 10 million fewer forms expected to be filed for that tax year compared with 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic hit. The IRS' estimates for each year from now through 2027 are millions below those it forecast in a 2019 report.

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To be sure, W-2 forms are not a perfect measure of employment, as people with multiple jobs are expected to file one for each position held in the year. Still, the IRS forecast suggests it may take the US economy years to recover from the pandemic-induced recession — the country's deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

There is one category of tax forms that the IRS sees growing in the coming years: tax forms for gig workers. The IRS forecasts that there will be 1.6 million more 1099-MISC forms filed for the 2020 tax year than for 2019.