US crude-oil production will slow sharply from record heights over the next year, EIA says

• US oil production will slow dramatically from 2023's fast rate of expansion, the Energy Information Administration wrote
• After December's record output, crude production will dip until 2025.

US oil output will expand by only 160,000 barrels per day this year, a dramatic slowdown from the 1.02 million bpd jump seen in 2023, the Energy Information Administration outlined Tuesday.

It means that December's record outflows of over 13.3 million bpd won't be reached again until February 2025. The measure already fell to 12.6 million in January as extreme weather froze production.

The EIA expects this month to see output rebound to near-record levels, before dipping through the rest of 2024. For the year, crude oil production will rise to 13.21 million bpd.

It will reaccelerate in 2025 at 13.49 million bpd.

The projection puts a damper on the country's production momentum. In 2023, the US became history's biggest producer, putting out so much crude as to offset OPEC efforts to cut down on the global supply.

Currently, the IEA continues to expect a 120,000 bpd global deficit in 2024. The agency expects oil prices to rise modestly as the Red Sea attacks continue to add to uncertainty. Brent crude could reach into the mid-$80 per barrel through the coming months.

Some price pressure relief could come from a second quarter increase in global oil inventories.

"However, ongoing risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East create the potential for crude oil prices to be higher than our forecast," the EIA's report said.