These 5 sky-high estimates show top economists expect another record flood of unemployment filings as the coronavirus lockdown spreads
- Economists expect that unemployment data released Thursday could exceed last week's blockbuster report showing record layoffs amid the coronavirus pandemic.
- Estimates range from about 3 million to as many as 5.5 million jobless claims for the week ending March 28.
- Economists also anticipate that last week's record number could be revised even higher.
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Economists are expecting another record-shattering unemployment report as coronavirus-induced layoffs persist across the country.
US weekly jobless claims data will be released Thursday for the week ending March 28, following a blockbuster week in which a record 3.28 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance.
Estimates for this week's number from economists at major firms range from more than 3 million to as high as 5.5 million.
Economists look at a menagerie of data to make predictions about job losses over the last week. That data includes news reports showing which states had technical difficulties in unemployment offices last week, which states ramped up social-distancing measures to curb the spread of COVID-19, and even Google trends data that shows a surge in searches for "unemployment benefits."
There's also a chance that last week's number will be revised even higher, given some of these issues.
"We could see the original eye-popping number become even more so," Martha Gimbel, an economist at Schmidt Futures, told Business Insider.
The Thursday report is expected to signal even further economic pain ahead. On Friday, the March jobs report - which includes the unemployment rate - will be released. But, it includes data only through March 14, and so will not show the impact of the last two weeks of the month where millions filed for unemployment benefits.
"The incoming initial jobless claims data suggest we could see unprecedented job loss in the April jobs report in the tens of millions with the unemployment rate reaching double digits," wrote Joseph Song, an economist at Bank of America, in a Wednesday note.
Meanwhile, cases of COVID-19 continue to spike around the world and in the US. On Tuesday, President Trump told Americans to brace for a "very, very painful two weeks" during a press briefing. The White House officially projects that that the US could see between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic.
"Indeed, the darkest days for the labor market still lie ahead," a team of economists at Morgan Stanley wrote in a Wednesday note.