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Through Goldman's own index on financial conditions, the data shows that conditions worsened through the trade war, with the divergence starting to widen around March 2018. Right now it looks like it's only getting larger.
People in China are getting worried.
Baidu, the Chinese internet and AI company, which also functions as a search engine, is a good measure for uncertainty, according to Goldman. As shown, at certain points there has been major spikes at crucial points on the trade war.
China's been worse off in terms of the hit on GDP, but only just.
While the US benefitted in terms of net trade, both sides suffered in terms of real income, financial conditions, and trade policy uncertainty. Ultimately it's knocked off roughly 0.5% of US GDP and 0.7% off China's — China's GDP slowed to its lowest level since the '90s earlier this year.
The trade war will keep dragging into the new decade.
For both sides, the trade war is going to be a substantial drag on GDP into 2020. China won't recover till the second half of next year, and the US, nearer to 2021.
