- Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.
- US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.
Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.
While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including PredictIt and Polymarket, show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.
This turn in sentiment supported the so-called Trump trade, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said in a note on election night.
"Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda.
"This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.
US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as an inflationary event. Trump has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs on imports, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The two-year yield gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.
Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.
The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the euro and 3% higher against the Mexican peso.
Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.
S&P 500 futures were up 1.25% higher, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 1.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.2%.
Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has endorsed digital assets in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.
Trump Media and Technology Group shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter.
"Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.
Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls.
"Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.