- The Polymarket trader who bet big on a Donald Trump win made much more than previously thought.
- New research from Chainalysis estimates a total profit of over $85 million, up from $48 billion.
A Polymarket trader who bet tens of millions on Donald Trump's presidential win appears to have raked in a much larger profit than previously known.
A new estimate now places that figure at more than $85 million, well above the earlier tally of $48 million, according to research from the blockchain-analysis firm Chainalysis.
The firm also said as many as 11 accounts have been tied to the same so-called whale trader, recently revealed as a French trader known as Théo. The whale was previously believed to have operated four accounts.
There had been speculation that the wagers and their impact on the Polymarket presidential-election odds was a campaign to sway sentiment towards Trump. But in an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, Théo indicated that the bet simply reflected a high-conviction outlook.
It wasn't always a given that the trader would succeed: one day before the election, his four known accounts held about $3 million in unrealized losses as the race tightened.
Collectively, Polymarket traders bet around $3.7 billion in volume over who would win the US presidency. The surge has since prompted French gambling regulators to investigate the site and ensure it complies with domestic law.