The housing market is so local that the price-growth gap between Miami and San Francisco is near a 30-year high

• Real estate trends have become more and more local over the last year, a Redfin report showed.
• San Francisco home prices are down 10.1% compared to last year, while Miami prices are up 10.9%

Are home prices falling or rising in the US right now?

More than ever, it depends where you look. Real estate trends have become more local in the last year than they have since 2009, according to a Redfin analysis.

The difference between homes in Miami versus those in San Francisco illustrate the point, as homebuyers flock to Florida while California loses them.

Prices in Miami are up 10.9% year over year, close to a record high, while prices in San Francisco are down 10.1%.

That 21-percentage-point disparity in price growth is close to the largest in over three decades, approaching the 23-point difference in August 2022, per Redfin and Case-Shiller Home Price data going back to 1988.

"The stark difference in home-price dynamics between the Bay Area and Miami may be a reflection of a long-term, pandemic-fueled shift in where people choose to live," Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr said. "The fact that Miami prices are holding up well despite the national pullback in homebuying suggests the relative popularity of Florida is here to stay."

To be sure, the Bay Area remains more expensive than South Florida, with the former's median home-sale price 2.9 times higher than the latter at about $1.42 million versus $483,000 in February. But the gap is narrowing as it's down from 4.4 times higher in February 2020.

The next biggest price-growth gaps include Seattle (down 9.4%) versus Miami (up 10.9%), San Francisco (down 10.1%) versus Tampa, Florida (up 7.7%), Seattle (down 9.4%) versus Tampa (up 7.7%), and San Francisco (down 10.1%) versus Atlanta (up 6.6%).

"Insights from other parts of the country can create confusion because they don't necessarily reflect what's happening on the ground in your neighborhood," Washington DC Redfin Premier agent Steve Centrella said. "For instance, demand for downtown condos is returning here [in Washington DC] as government employees return to the office, so buyers may encounter competition for desirable units. That may not be the case in other parts of the country."