TGIF. Phil Rosen here, reporting from New York City.
I'm happy to see that, finally, the rest of the world seems to be catching on to the magic that is Magic: The Gathering.
Haven't heard of it? Well the once-niche card game just became a $1 billion brand.
That means sales of these fantastical cards featuring creatures, spells, and planeswalkers are popular enough to comfortably match the GDP of a handful of small countries.
Shares of parent-company Hasbro, which also publishes Dungeons & Dragons, enjoyed a pleasant Thursday rally on news of the billion-dollar milestone, even as earnings missed estimates.
Wizardry aside, let's see why the stock market has proved so resilient this year, even though the economy's providing nothing to cheer for.
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1. Markets have remained stable to start 2023, even as economic uncertainty persists and recent data suggests more aggressive moves from the Federal Reserve may be looming.
So what gives?
DataTrek cofounder Nicholas Colas is chalking up stable markets to strong earnings.
"The only explanation that makes sense to us for this conundrum of 'bad' news and stable markets is that US corporate earnings power remains resilient," Colas wrote in a Thursday note to clients.
He pointed out that the CBOE VIX index, a measure of volatility in the stock market, has moved well below its long-run average, and the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have had meteoric starts to the year following a dismal 2022.
To be sure, earnings for S&P 500 companies are relatively stagnant, but they remain more than 31% higher than the 2018-2019 quarterly average, Colas said.
All together, it seems like markets are pretty much shrugging off higher interest rates, and betting on easing Fed policy sooner rather than later.
In his words: "The old trader's saying that 'you trade the market you have, not the one you think makes sense' is especially true today."
Even as markets act like everything's fine, there's still not quite enough optimism among investors to say that markets are nearing a peak, according to Ned Davis Research.
Stocks have rallied on enthusiasm from the "fear of missing out" trade, the firm said, but that enthusiasm isn't yet irrational, and that suggests more upside.
"The rally has pulled some investors off the sidelines," NDR said, "but sentiment appears to be far from the excessively optimistic levels that are often seen at major market peaks."
How has your recession outlook changed from three months ago until now, and how has that impacted your investing strategy? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
2. US stock futures fall early Friday, signaling further losses after hotter-than-expected inflation data and Fed officials' comments sparked concerns about steeper rate hikes than expected. The dollar rallied on the back of the news. Here are the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck:, Hermès, Allianz, and more, all reporting.
4. This fund manager who beat 96% of his competition recommended these 12 stocks. Investors should hedge against inflation by leaning into names with higher-than-expected price growth, he said. Get his top picks.
5. Foreign markets could offer more promising returns this year compared to US stocks. That's according to a portfolio manager from Thornburg. She listed five reasons why the tide is turning for international equities over their American counterparts.
6. A top economist said mortgage rates will drop to 5.2% this year despite this month's uptick. Lower rates will help buyers but may prevent owners from selling. That forecast rests on a drop in the 10-year Treasury-bond yield.
7. The International Energy Agency said Russian oil revenue has been hurt by the EU's price caps. Even as Moscow has proven more resilient than expected with exports, revenue has tumbled in January by 36% compared to a year ago.
8. A top-ranked stock-picker said January's hot CPI report suggests the stock market is far from the bottom. Sticky inflation, liquidity draining, and a high Fed Funds Rate all mean there's more room to fall for markets — but he said these three investment options are set to outperform.
9. Two portfolio managers at a $24 billion firm shared names that are pursuing innovation even as the economy slows down. The time for speculative bets may be in the past, but investors shouldn't shy away from quality growth names. Here are the eight stocks they like right now.
10. Bitcoin climbed to a 6-month high on Thursday. But crypto investors aren't in the clear just yet — macro conditions remain uncertain and risk appetite still hinges on the Federal Reserve's next move.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Nathan Rennolds (@ncrennolds) in London.