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The Fed's jumbo rate hike is a lock, but there's no consensus on what happens next. Here's what the top Wall Street banks expect.

Nov 2, 2022, 20:30 IST
Business Insider
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.Reuters
  • There's a broad consensus among Wall Street banks for a 75-basis-point rate hike in November, but forecasts are mixed for December.
  • Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, for example, expect a 50-basis-point hike next month, but others predict a larger move.
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Wall Street's top players agree that the Federal Reserve's rate hike on Wednesday will be 75 basis points, but so far no consensus has emerged for what December's Federal Open Market Committee meeting holds.

After the Fed's November meeting, the benchmark rate is expected to climb a range of 3.75% to 4%, the highest since 2008. While that would also mark the fourth straight jumbo increase, policymakers have remained steadfast in their commitment to taming stubbornly high inflation, making additional tightening likely.

For the Fed's December meeting, bank predictions range from half-point to three-quarter point raises, with rumors of a potential Fed pivot still circulating among commentators.

Here's what seven Wall Street banks expect next month:

Goldman Sachs: 50 basis points

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Analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to raise rates at a slower pace, but to continue doing so for a longer stretch of time.

"We are adding another 25bp hike to our own forecast — which now calls for hikes of 75bp in November, 50bp in December, 25bp in February, and 25bp in March — and now see the funds rate peaking at 4.75-5%," they wrote in recent note.

JPMorgan: 50 basis points

According to Bloomberg, the bank sees a half-point increase. Separately, JPMorgan's Julia Wang said the central bank won't pivot until the end of next year, given the strength of the US economy.

"The weakness in the economy isn't really as big or coming as fast as people have expected. I think a lot of indicators on the consumer side actually are still pretty resilient," she said.

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Morgan Stanley: 50 basis points

The Wall Street heavyweight is also in the half-point camp, according to Bloomberg.

In addition, the firm's top stock-picker, Mike Wilson, said in a Monday note he expects the central bank to pivot away from its hawkish campaign "sooner than later," and that the November meeting will give upside momentum to the S&P 500.

"This week's Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely," Wilson wrote. "Our call is still for the rally to reach 4,000 to 4,150 and we're leaning toward the upper bound."

Wells Fargo: 50 basis points

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The bank forecasts a half-point move, according to Bloomberg. But in a recent note, analysts warned that Americans' pandemic savings will make it harder for the Fed to cool inflation.

As a result, companies will keep raising prices as long as consumers can dip into savings, which could be a factor in keeping inflation around for longer.

Barclays: 75 basis points

The Fed is unlikely to show signs of pivoting away from its aggressive policy campaign, according to Barclays.

"Our US economists see Powell emphasizing data dependence while keeping optionality for another 75 basis point hike to close out 2022," Barclays analysts wrote in a note.

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Citigroup: 50 basis points

Deutsche Bank: 75 basis points

Investors, too, are mixed on their December predictions. As of Wednesday morning, traders were betting on a 44% chance of a half-point hike next month, data from CME Group show.

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