- The S&P 500 is on track to hit the 5,000 level by 2024 based on prior secular bull markets, according to Bank of America.
- The bank compared the current bull market that began in 2013 to secular bull markets in the 1950s and 1980s.
- The presidential cycle should serve as a tailwind for stocks into the middle of 2024, BofA said.
The S&P 500 is on track to hit the 5,000 level by next year as the secular bull market that began in 2013 follows a similar roadmap seen in the 1950s and 1980s, according to Bank of America.
Such a rally would represent potential upside of at least 13% for the S&P 500, which traded around 4,400 on Thursday.
"The 24% rally on the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low relinks the 2013 to present secular bull market with the 1950 to 1966 and 1980 to 2000 secular bull markets," BofA technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier said in a Thursday note.
In an overlay chart, he compared the bull markets that began in 1950 and 1980 with the current market and found that they "line up" after the solid rally in recent months.
The chart shows that the latest bull market in the S&P 500 would last until at least 2028 and ultimately break above the 6,000 level some time in 2026, assuming it continues to track the prior bull markets as closely as it has over the past decade.
One tailwind that could power the stock market to 5,000 by next year is the presidential cycle, which highlights the relationship between stock market performance and the four-year term of a US president.
"The S&P 500 can continue its winning ways in [the] second half after achieving a solid first half. When the S&P 500 has an above average first half return during Presidential Cycle Year 3, the second half of the year tends to be stronger than the typical second half with an average second half return of 3.9%," Suttmeier said.
While the third year of a president's term is typically the strongest for the stock market, the fourth year has also historically seen solid performance heading into an election.
"The Presidential Cycle shows an upward bias from the midterm year low until the end of the Presidential Election year," Suttmeier said.
Finally, he highlighted that monthly price momentum in the stock market is about to flash its first buy signal since July 2020. This signal has been accurate during prior inflection points of the ongoing bull market.
"A bullish cross for the MACD line above the signal line this month would complete this signal and offer more confirmation of the S&P 500 rally from the October 2022 low. The last few signals from July 2020, July/September of 2019, September/November 2016, February 2012, August 2009, May 2003 and December 1998 acted as bullish trend continuation signals for US equities," Suttmeier said.
A lot is working for US stocks right now, and if his secular bull market roadmap plays out, then the 5,000 level on the S&P 500 could be reached sooner than some expect.