Tesla stock has 68% upside as the 'best house in a bad block' of distressed EV makers, analyst says
- CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson holds a $275 price target on Tesla, implying 68% upside from current levels.
- The firm is well-positioned to benefit from electric vehicle industry distress, he told Fox Business.
Tesla's 2024 stock plunge is no more than an overdue correction, and its price will eventually rebound to $275, CFRA vice president Garrett Nelson told Fox Business. That forecast implies 68% upside from Friday's close.
Although the firm's shares have dropped over 35% since the start of the year, a pullback makes sense after the stock doubled in 2023, he said on Friday.
And looking ahead, there's a number of catalysts poised to drive a rebound, he said. Chief among them is distress in the electric vehicle industry, which should put Tesla front and center again.
"We kind of view Tesla as the best house on a bad block in the Western market, you know, looking at North America and Europe," Nelson said.
While leading US car manufacturers abandon EV growth plans in favor of hybrid alternatives, smaller firms are facing more existential dilemma. Just this week, one start-up called Fisker prepared to file for bankruptcy, he noted.
Vehicle sales have been slowing down across the industry, a trend that has cut into Tesla's revenue and forced it to slash prices on its models.
But at the same time, the company is well positioned to stay afloat through any sector strain, and can grow its market share over the coming years as competition falls out, Nelson said.
"They plan on growing their annual volumes to about 20 million units; it would make them far away the largest auto manufacturer surpassing the number one, which is Toyota," he said, before adding: "Even if they fall well short of that target. We still think there's a pathway for them to become the largest auto manufacturer."
Among other positives is the company's $29 billion cash trove, new factory lineup, and plans for another EV model this year, Nelson said. However, he did acknowledge that China could pose an issue, given mounting competition from the country.
Nelson's stance puts him at odds with others who have started souring on the EV maker. This week, Wells Fargo downgraded the company to a price target of $125, calling the firm a "growth company with no growth."
Meanwhile, others — like investor Ross Gerber — have criticized CEO Elon Musk, calling his behavior on social media a poor advertisement for Tesla.