Swiggy's IPO set to open tomorrow. Should you subscribe?

The IPO (initial public offer) of food and grocery delivery behemoth Swiggy is set to open tomorrow and conclude on November 8, 2024. The entire issue is worth Rs 11,327.43 crore and has a fresh issue component of Rs 4,499 crore and an OFS (offer for sale) of about Rs 6,828.43 crore. With a price band of Rs 371-390, retail investors will be required to invest a minimum of Rs 14,820 to get their hands on Swiggy's shares.

Swiggy, which will tentatively list on the bourses on November 13, 2024, is seeking to raise Rs 1,952.43 crore more than its rival Zomato, which went public in July 2021 and was looking to raise Rs 9,375 crore. Zomato's offer was oversubscribed around 38.25 times, with retail investors subscribing 7.45x to the issue. Notably, only around 15% of Swiggy's total issue will be made available to retail investors.

Moreover, Swiggy's IPO is not garnering the same buzz if its present GMP (grey market premium) trends are to be believed. The company's last traded GMP was Rs 7, taking its estimated listing price to Rs 397 (upper end of its price band, i.e., Rs 390 + Rs 7), and its potential listing gains per share at a minimal 1.79%.

Last week, Swiggy's GMP was at Rs 25, before tumbling to Rs 18, and then momentarily stabilizing at Rs 22 before its steep fall to present levels of Rs 7.

Strengths and weaknesses

Since its inception in 2014, Swiggy's bottom line has been in red, unlike that of its rival Zomato, which turned profitable in the first quarter of FY24.

In FY22, its total income was Rs. 6119.78 crore with a net loss of Rs. 3628.90 crore. While the company's total income increased to Rs. 8714.45 crore in FY23, it also spelled a corresponding rise in its net losses, which surged to Rs. 4179.31 crore.

The trend varied a little in FY24 when Swiggy's total income rose to Rs 11,634.35 crore while its net loss reduced to Rs. 2,350.24 crore. However, in the first quarter of FY25, ending June 30, 2024, the company's total income stood at Rs 3,310.11 crore and a net loss of Rs. 611.01 crore.

While Swiggy did achieve 42.4% revenue growth between FY2022-223, most of its revenue is sourced from the top 50 of the 500 Indian cities it is currently operational in. Even in this regard, Zomato, which operates in around 1,000 cities across India, has an edge.

Some say invest, some say avoid

Some experts are advising against subscribing to this IPO. Per SAMCO Securities, "As of FY 2024, Swiggy Limited continues to operate at a loss, in contrast to its competitor, Zomato Limited, which has recently achieved profitability. Given Swiggy’s current financial position, competitive pressures, associated risks, and valuation, its IPO appears overvalued. Therefore, investors should avoid this IPO until the company’s financial performance and growth outlook improve. Waiting until Swiggy demonstrates improved financial results and a clearer path to sustainable growth would be a more prudent investment approach.

Per Bajaj Broking's IPO note, Swiggy's IPO can be subscribed to from a long-term perspective. However, it also highlights that Swiggy's offer document is missing PAT (profit after tax) and RoCE (returns on capital employed) data.

"For the last three fiscals, the company has reported an average EPS of Rs - (14.90) and an average RoNW of - (35.39%). The issue is priced at a P/BV of 11.60 based on its NAV of Rs. 33.61 as of June 30, 2024, and is at a P/BV of 7.31 based on its post-IPO NAV of Rs. 53.36 per share (at upper cap). If we attribute annualized FY25 earnings to a post-IPO fully diluted equity base, then the asking price is at a negative P/E, and based on FY24 earnings also, it is at a negative P/E, as the company has posted losses for those periods. On other parameters, the issue appears aggressively priced," it further adds.

Gaurav Garg, research analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, notes that it might take some time for Swiggy to reach Zomato's level, both in terms of valuation and AOV (average order value). Swiggy's valuation has been pegged at about Rs 95,000 crore, at the upper price band, while Zomato has a market valuation of Rs 2.13 lakh crore.

"Almost 50% valuation compared to Zomato gives some comfort, although it should not be considered an arbitrage in valuation. If Swiggy’s EBITDA catches up to 3-4% in the food delivery business, which is currently at 1%, and Average Order Value (AOV) improves to Rs. 550-600 levels in quick commerce with a higher non-grocery share, we can see bridging in the valuation gap. However, this should not be expected in the near term," he adds.