Stock market today: US stocks edge higher ahead of key inflation data that will help determine Fed rate plans

• US stocks rose on Tuesday as investors await a key inflation report for March.
• The CPI report is set to be released Wednesday, and investors are expecting a continued slowdown in inflation.
• Bond yields slipped after rising as investors adjusted their outlook for rates in the last week.

US stocks edged higher on Tuesday as investors await a key inflation report later this week.

The March consumer price index report is set to be released Wednesday morning, and investors expect a continued decline in inflation. Current estimates suggest year-over-year core CPI will drop to 3.7% compared to the previous reading of 3.8%, while month-over-month Core CPI is expected to drop to 0.3% compared to the prior reading of 0.4%.

The March CPI report will help inform when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Current projections suggest about a 50-50 chance the first rate cut will arrive at the Fed's June FOMC meeting, but an inflation report outside of consensus estimates would impact those probabilities in a big way.

"It's exactly because US labor-market indicators are so ambiguous that makes the US inflation data so much more important as a driver of the outlook for Fed policy in the next few months. Tomorrow's March CPI report will be paramount," Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman said.

Bond yields dropped, with the 10-year Treasury slipping four basis points to 4.384%.

Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:

• S&P 500: 5,219.87, up 0.32%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 38,974.22, up 0.2% (+79.40 points)
• Nasdaq Composite: 16,312.15, up 0.35%

Here's what else is going on today:

• A famed recession indicator is flashing red even as financial markets price in zero chance of a downturn in the coming year.
• Any spike in inflation would send gold prices surging as much as 50% through 2025, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.
• These 8 stocks will post unexpectedly strong Q1 earnings during one of the best settings for stock-pickers in almost 20 years, according to Evercore.

In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped by 0.07% to $86.37 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped by 0.11% to $90.48 a barrel.
• Gold jumped 0.78% to $2,369.40 per ounce.
• The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.384%.
• Bitcoin dropped by 1.63% to $70,460.