- Russia's wartime activity has made it complicated to forecast whether the economy is contracting or expanding.
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, the World Bank, and IMF disagree on how the economy is doing.
The world's top forecasters can't reach a consensus on whether Russia's economy is expanding or contracting.
The uncertainty of war and ambiguity of official data — Moscow stopped sharing some economic figures shortly after invading Ukraine last year — make forecasting a complicated task. Some banks and international organizations expect Russia to see an economic expansion this year, while others anticipate further deterioration before a rebound.
Here are seven forecasts for Russia's real GDP in 2023 from some of the world's top forecasters, per data compiled by the Wall Street Journal.
- JPMorgan: 1.0%
- International Monetary Fund: 0.7%
- World Bank: -0.2%
- Morgan Stanley: -0.6%
- Bank of Russia: -1.1%
- Goldman Sachs: -1.3%
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: -2.5%
The mixed forecasts for 2023 come after Russia surprised analysts last year. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, some commentators said the country faced a contraction of up to 15%. But the IMF estimates GDP dropped just 2% last year.
However, economist Mikhhail Mamonov has warned against using GDP as a gauge for a nation at war, especially for a nation like Russia where official data may be altered, per the Guardian. He pointed to a steep drop in retail spending as reason to believe the economy suffered a dramatic contraction.
And independent economist Alexei Bayer said observers shouldn't place too much faith in numbers that incorporate Moscow's official data.
"Russian economic statistics are a collection of lies and distortions," he wrote in the Jerusalem Post.
Over the longer term, Russia is likely to face growing headwinds as war drags on in Ukraine.
Economist Konstantin Sonin told Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta Sunday that the current regime could follow the path of the Soviet Union and barrel toward "complete economic implosion."
And Finland's central bank said Russia is undergoing "reverse industrialization" as war costs forces it to pull back investments in technology.
"Russia is stuck ineluctably on a path to lower potential growth and a bleak economic future," Laura Solanko, a senior advisor for the Bank of Finland, wrote in a recent blog post.