Russia's economy hasn't cratered since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine — even though Wall Street thought it was inevitable. Here's what to know.
Welcome back, readers. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York.
It's not easy to get a prediction dead wrong — especially on a matter of global importance — but in this case, a whole handful of banks called it wrong on the trajectory for Russia's economy.
Wall Street giants had predicted Russia's economy to resemble a trainwreck in the aftermath of Western sanctions.
That isn't quite what happened. In fact, some data actually point to strength emerging from Moscow's economy.
Let's get started.
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1. Top investment banks rushed to predict Russia's economic downfall when Vladimir Putin first ordered the invasion of Ukraine six months ago, but analysts have since had to walk back some of their forecasts.
The current data coming out of Moscow "does not point to an abrupt plunge in activity," JPMorgan strategists wrote in note.
The firm changed its tune recently after it had forecast in March that Russia's GDP would drop 35% in the second quarter:
"The GDP profile, therefore, looks increasingly likely to be consistent with a drawn-out, but not very sharp recession."
Soaring crude exports and high prices have been a boon for the Russian economy, and the IMF said the Kremlin's program to keep unemployment low has been effective so far.
Moscow's ability to pivot toward Asian customers for exports has also helped insulate it from Western sanctions that were expected to crush the economy.
Goldman Sachs had said five months earlier that Russia would struggle to find new trading partners amid war — but China and India, among others, have emerged as big buyers of Russian energy commodities.
India alone has seen a 900% increase in those supplies since February.
All the while, the EU still hauls in 2.8 million barrels a day despite its own sanctions on Moscow, Bloomberg data shows.
And factory and services data, too, show the Russian economy is chugging along at a steady clip.
Strategists at Goldman previously highlighted that Russia's composite Purchasing Managers Index suggested steep economic declines loomed.
Immediately after the invasion, that figure slid from 50.8 in February to 37.7 in March.
But later, the same data returned to growth territory.
The most recent number came in at 52.2 — one more signal of a strong economy that stands in stark contrast to Wall Street's expectations.
Where do you see Russia's economy heading from here? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York.