Russia is about to overtake Saudi Arabia as the top OPEC+ producer
- Russia is about to surpass Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer in the OPEC+ cartel, according to the IEA.
- The agency estimated Saudi Arabia would produce just 9 million barrels per day of oil in July and August.
Russia is about to surpass Saudi Arabia as the top OPEC+ oil producer, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its monthly oil market report, the agency estimated Saudi Arabia's total crude production would fall to 9 million barrels a day through the months of July and August. That would be the lowest volume of oil the kingdom has produced in two years, the report said, which would cause it to slip below the ranks of Russia as the top oil producer in the OPEC+ cartel.
The estimated drop largely stems from Saudi Arabia's voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day, which the nation said recently it would extend through the month of July in a bid to prop up crude prices.
In June, Saudi Arabia produced 9.98 million barrels a day, and Russia produced 9.45 million barrels a day, according to IEA data.
Russia also said earlier this month that it plans to curb output by 500,000 barrels per day starting in August. But its actual output has often exceeded the reduced levels it promised, setting Russia up to potentially pump more than Saudia Arabia.
In fact, Saudi officials have complained that Russia isn't following through with its promised cuts, as its weakened economy is adding pressure to keep energy revenues afloat. In May, that caused the price of oil to fall below $81 a barrel, a key breakeven level for Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh has worked to push oil prices higher for months, with the nation's energy chief citing market "distortions" that are keeping prices low. That led OPEC+ to issue a series of aggressive production cuts last year and Saudi Arabia's first voluntary cut in June.
Meanwhile, Russian oil exports slumped in June to the lowest volume since 2021, suggesting that its crude production may finally have dipped as well, after months of robust exports earlier this year.