- Yale data shared with Insider illustrate that China is now Russia's largest import and export partner.
- Yet, Russia remains just the 11th most significant exporter to China.
Not long ago, Russia was on steady footing as a major energy exporter and key player in global markets. But 16 months into its "special military operation" in Ukraine, and Moscow has fallen far in the global trade and financial order.
Thousands of corporations have taken their business elsewhere, Western nations have imposed historic sanctions, and its financial system is a shadow of what it once was.
That's left Vladimir Putin's regime increasingly reliant on China.
Yale figures shared with Insider shows that China is now Russia's largest import and export partner by a big margin, but the relationship is heavily lopsided. While the bulk of Russia's exports go to China, the country is far down on the pecking order when it comes to Beijing's biggest trade partners. Meanwhile, China is Russia's biggest source of imports by far.
"Clearly Russia is much more dependent on China to provide it with the imports and advanced manufactured products it needs, while Russian markets represent a negligible secondary opportunity for Chinese businesses," Yale researcher Jeffrey Sonnenfeld said.
By Sonnenfeld's calculations, China imports more than double the value of goods to Russia compared to Germany, Russia's second-largest importer.
By comparison, Russia is the 11th largest importer of Chinese goods, with the US, Hong Kong, and Japan taking in far more as China's three biggest trade partners.
Even Russia's spiraling car industry reveals China's growing influence. Soaring prices, weak consumer spending, and a supply shock for foreign-made vehicles have made the Chinese car brand Geely the only non-Russian brand to see an increase in sales. With a sharp 88% annual jump in sales, Geely now commands an 11% market share for Russia's auto sector.
Meanwhile, over the last year, Putin has pointed to Russia's current account surplus as evidence of a resilient economy. But those numbers are fading fast thanks to dwindling energy export profits and a lack of trade partners besides China, which has been able to buy Russian goods at hefty discounts.
Over the last quarter, the Bank of Russia reported a 93% drop in its current account surplus.
While the relationship appears fairly one-sided, some strategists think Moscow still has some leverage, and Putin isn't guaranteed to become subservient to President Xi Jinping, according to think tank writer Mikhail Korostikov.
"The relationship between Russia and China is by no means perfect, but the shared interests of both countries' leaderships and the strategic logic of the confrontation with the West create a solid foundation for reasonably equal cooperation," he said. "Within that interaction, China does have a certain opportunity to turn Russia into its vassal — but, crucially, it has no compelling reasons to do so."