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Rising Treasury yields are impacting you regardless of where your money is invested. Here's how.

Oct 24, 2023, 21:05 IST
Business Insider
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
  • This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.
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If you've paid even a bit of attention to the market over the past few months, chances are you've heard the commotion over US Treasury yields.

Specifically, the 10-year Treasury yield has gotten lots of attention. On Monday, it briefly surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007 as the sell-off in the bond market continues. (Prices and yields are inversely related; the more people sell Treasurys, the higher their yields go, and vice versa.)

That's caused lots of pain for stocks, as the returns offered by bonds look better by comparison. But even if you have zero interest in the market, Treasury volatility impacts you. Insider's Jennifer Sor highlighted four different charts showing how soaring bond yields affect US consumers.

From mortgage rates to personal loans and credit card debt, there are lots of ways consumers are feeling the pain.

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Interest rates on personal loans at commercial banks is are the highest level since 2007.Federal Reserve

Treasury yields climbing means the cost of getting cash for everyone else increases.

Since Treasurys are a debt obligation to the US government, they are considered one of the safest investments.

And while you might think you're a better debtor than Uncle Sam, good luck finding an investor not related to you who will lend you money for less than what the Federal government is offering to pay.

As a result, Treasurys serve as the de-facto benchmark for lenders. The riskier the debt, the higher it'll be compared to the 10-year Treasury yield. (Insider's Alistair Barr has a fantastic explainer on this dynamic.)

So with that in mind, are we all screwed?

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At least one high-profile investor has already closed out his bet that Treasury prices would fall. That would be billionaire Bill Ackman, who said he closed a profitable short position against 30-year Treasury bonds.

That sounds promising, right?

Not quite.

Ackman said there are "too many risks in the world" to keep betting against US government bonds. Treasurys are widely considered to be among the safest investments in the world, and investors tend to flock to them during times of heightened uncertainty. "The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggest," Ackman said in a post on X.

So yes, Treasury yields could fall. But it'd likely result from an economic slump that comes with its own set of headaches.

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The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City. Diamond Naga Siu, senior reporter, in San Diego. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York.

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